Three Butt-Hurt Bets Sunday For Round 2 In This Trash 2025 NCAA Tournament

From here on out, I'm gambling on the 2025 NCAA Tournament strictly out of professional responsibility. My St. John's Red Storm got eliminated in the Round of 32 on Saturday and my college basketball bankroll is FUBAR. I have nothing else to root for besides my bets in the Big Dance and my only remaining survivor pool entry (I started with five). 

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks for Sunday 

These bets are the best available odds at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing. 

• Midwest Region: No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini moneyline (-128) vs. No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats via FanDuel, risking 1.28 units (u).
• East Region: No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels +6 (-110) vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
• East Region: No. 5 Oregon Ducks +3.5 (-105) vs. No. 4 Arizona Wildcats via FanDuel, risking 1.05u

Illinois (-128) vs. Kentucky, 5:15 p.m. ET

The Wildcats allow teams to chuck 3-pointers, which is exactly what the Fighting Illini want to do. Illinois is 31st nationally in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and UK is 318th in defensive 3PAR, according to Ken Pom. Granted, Illinois is abysmal from behind the arc, ranking 296th in 3-point shooting percentage and Kentucky is 23rd. 

However, the Fighting Illini chase teams off the 3-point line (third in the country in defensive 3PAr), which is more predictive than raw defensive shooting percentages. Think about it: If hoopers at this skill level get looks, eventually they'll go in (unless you're my Johnnies, who built a brick house on Saturday in the second round).  

Illinois Fighting Illini PG Kasparas Jakucionis hitting the Xavier Musketeers with a step-back in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Furthermore, the Wildcats are much less likely to score second-chance points because of their 227th offensive rebounding rate. Illinois is 25th in defensive rebounding rate and 18th offensively. Since neither forces turnovers (the Illini are 360th in defensive turnover rate and UK is 340th), putbacks are the next-best option to score easy buckets. 

Lastly, Illinois freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis is the best player in this game and is projected to be a lottery pick in the upcoming 2025 NBA Draft. Jakucionis can commit too many turnovers, but the Wildcats don't have an aggressive defense, so Jakucionis should be able to play his game. 

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Saint Mary's (+6) vs. Alabama, 6:10 p.m. ET

The Gaels have a puncher's chance because they play a completely different style than the Crimson Tide. For example, Saint Mary's runs the fifth-slowest offense in the country, whereas ‘Bama runs the fourth-fastest, according to Ken Pom. If the Gaels can play their game, it’ll be tough for Alabama to get enough possessions to win by margin. 

Furthermore, ‘Bama’s game is mostly dunks and 3-pointers, but Saint Mary’s protects the paint and runs opponents off the 3-point line. The Gaels are 34th nationally in defensive 3-point percentage and 11th in defensive 3PAr, per Ken Pom. They are 11th in "near-proximity" field goal percentage (dunks, layups, and putbacks), according to Erik Haslam.

St. Mary's Gaels guard Augustas Marciulionis drives on the wing vs. the Vanderbilt Commodores int he 2025 NCAA Tournament. (Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images)

Granted, Saint Mary's plays in the West Coast Conference, which only had two teams in the 2025 NCAA Tournament (Gonzaga was eliminated by Houston on Saturday). The Crimson Tide, on the other hand, plays in the SEC where there are 14 tourney teams, and "It just means more" (it kills me to write that). 

Whatever. This tournament sucks. There's hardly been any big upsets, besides 2-seeded St. John's (puke), and where are the Cinderella stories? The least the Gaels can do is give us a competitive game to watch. Saint Mary's rebounds well and doesn't foul often. That, plus the other stuff, is good enough for me to take +5.5 points with the Gaels. 

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Oregon (+3.5) at Arizona, 9:40 p.m. ET 

The Ducks rank ahead of the Wildcats in the "intangible stats" that are useful to look at come tournament time. (Or so I'm told). Per college basketball analyst Erik Haslam, Oregon is 50th in "Paper Tiger Factor" (how teams play vs. tougher competition), 27th in "momentum" (how teams are playing over their last 4-8 games), and "away from home" efficiency. 

Arizona is 141st in "momentum", 220th in "away from home" efficiency, and 351st out of 364 DI basketball teams in "Paper Tiger Factor". The Wildcats lost to all the good non-conference teams they played, including Wisconsin (103-88), Duke (69-55), and UCLA (57-54). While the Ducks beat Texas A&M and Alabama at neutral sites and Wisconsin on the road. 

Oregon is 22nd nationally in defensive rating and Arizona runs too much of its offense through PG Caleb Love, who is inefficient. Love has the worst offensive rating in ‘Zona’s starting 5. The Ducks are familiar with the Wildcats. They beat them in the final men's college basketball Pac-12 Tournament last season, holding Love to 6 points on 2-for-12 shooting.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.