A Trio Of ‘Locks’ For Thursday’s First-Round 2025 NCAA Tournament Games

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It's about time. It's felt like I've been waiting years for the 2025 NCAA Tournament to tip off. And not this First Four nonsense. I'm talking about the real thing. Aka, the Big Dance, when there is wall-to-wall high-stakes elimination basketball to gamble on and sweat. 

Full disclosure: While I'm giving out "best bets", I'm more parachuting into college hoops for the NCAA tourney. Most of my college basketball consumption is watching my St. John's Red Storm beat the brakes off of the Big East. Regardless, I've done the homework, and I'm getting in on the action of the greatest betting event in sports: March Madness. 

2025 NCAA Tournament Betting Card: Thursday, March 20 

These bets are the best available odds at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing. 

  • South Region: 9-seed Creighton Bluejays +2.5 (-105) vs. 8-seed Louisville Cardinals via DraftKings, risking 1.05 units (u).
  • East Region: 11-seed VCU Rams +2.5 (-110) vs. 6-seed BYU Cougars via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.
  • South Region: 13-seed Yale Bulldogs +7.5 (-108) vs. 4-seed Texas A&M Aggies via FanDuel, risking 1.08u.

Creighton (+2.5) vs. Louisville, 12:15 p.m. ET 

The Bluejays have more size, continuity, and postseason experience. Per Ken Pom, Creighton is the seventh-tallest team in the country (the Cardinals are 66th) and 88th in minutes continuity (Louisville is 352nd out of 364 DI schools). The Cardinals are in the first year of the Pat Kelsey era, and this is the first season this team has played together. 

Bluejays 7-foot C Ryan Kalkbrenner is the reigning four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year. This is Creighton's fifth straight NCAA tourney appearance. The Bluejays have two Sweet 16 and one Elite Eight appearances over that span. Kalkbrenner has played for all five teams and has been a starter for the last four years. 

Creighton Bluejays C Ryan Kalkbrenner celebrates an "and-one" vs. the St. John's Red Storm at Madison Square Garden in the 2025 Big East men's college basketball tournament. (Photo credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

Creighton Bluejays C Ryan Kalkbrenner celebrates an "and-one" vs. the St. John's Red Storm at Madison Square Garden in the 2025 Big East men's college basketball tournament. (Photo credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Creighton has a better shot profile. The Bluejays have a higher rate of offensive and defensive dunk share and better offensive and defensive 3-point attempt volume, according to Bart Torvik. Since dunks and 3-pointers are the most important in basketball nowadays, Creighton has a more efficient offense. 

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark's 2025 NCAA Tournament First-Round Best Bets and Final Four Picks ft. Dan Z & Scott Martin

Lastly, the Bluejays have a slightly better resume this season. They are 6-1-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. ranked teams with wins over Kansas (7-seed), St. John's (2-seed), Marquette (7-seed), and UConn (8-seed). The Cardinals are 3-4 ATS vs. ranked foes. Their biggest win was over Clemson (5-seed), which I have power-rated below Creighton's three Big East opponents. 

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VCU (+2.5) vs. BYU, 4:05 p.m. ET

The stat nerds love the Cougars because they are 15th nationally in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 33rd in 3-point shooting percentage. However, the Rams have the best defensive effective field goal rate (eFG%) in the country, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting, and rank 22nd in defensive 3-point percentage. 

BYU is 242nd in defensive 3-point percentage and 331st in defensive 3PAr. So, not only don't the Cougars chase opponents off the 3-point line, but they are allowing the wrong guys to shoot too. VCU is 27th nationally in offensive 3PAr, and apparently, the Rams will get good looks vs. the Cougars. 

Also, VCU's Max Shulga is the best player on the floor. Shulga is the 2025 Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and has the highest PER and Win Shares per 40 minutes on either team. The Rams are 30th in defensive TOV% and BYU is 207th in offensive TOV%. Hence, VCU should win the 3-point and turnover battles. That's good enough for me to bet Rams +2.5. 

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Yale (+7.5) vs. Texas A&M, 7:25 p.m. ET

The Bulldogs upset Auburn as a 4-seed in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Auburn was a better 4-seed last year than the Aggies are this year because Texas A&M's offense is trash. The Aggies are 317th in eFG%, 249th in TOV%, and 287th in assists per field goal made. 

Their only two offensive edges are crashing the glass (first in offensive rebounding rate) and getting to the charity stripe (17th in free-throw-attempt rate). Unfortunately for Texas A&M, Yale cancels out those strengths. The Bulldogs are 22nd in defensive rebounding and have an above-average defensive free-throw-attempt rate. 

Finally, the Aggies' aggressive defense helps their opponents to get off 3-pointers. Texas A&M is 352nd in defensive 3PAr and Yale is ninth in 3-point shooting percentage. The Bulldogs have two sharpshooters in their starting 5: SG John Poulakidas (40.9% from 3-point range) and forward Nick Townsend (49.1% from 3-point land). 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.