NBA Christmas 2024 Best Bets Featuring 76ers-Celtics, Lakers-Warriors
One of my favorite traditions is betting my a** off on the NBA's annual Christmas Day slate. Let me be clear: Betting on five NBA games in one day is likely stupid. Especially now that the NFL is starting its own Christmas tradition. Yet, I've been (responsibly) gambling on every NBA Christmas game for years, and the tradition must continue. Well, call me "Santa Clark" because I come bearing gifts, or coal, depending on how my NBA Christmas 2024 best bets do.
NBA Betting Card for Christmas 2024
- UNDER 224.5 (-110) in San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks via FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
- Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) at Dallas Mavericks via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
- Boston Celtics -9.5 (-112) vs. Philadelphia 76ers via FanDuel, risking 1.12u.
- OVER 224.5 (-115) in Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors via BetMGM, risking 1.15u.
- Phoenix Suns +3 (down to +1.5) vs. Denver Nuggets via Fanatics Sportsbook, if Devin Booker plays*.
UNDER 224.5 in Spurs at Knicks, noon ET
First of all, San Antonio (15-14) PG Chris Paul and New York (19-10) PG Jalen Brunson will slow this game down by doing their "point-guard" bullsh*t. This is where they over-dribble and run the shot clock by trying to pick apart the defense.
CleaningTheGlass.com says the Spurs get out in transition more with CP3 in the game, but that doesn't pass the eye test. Spurs 7-foot-3 C Victor Wembanyama spends too much time away from the basket to set screens for Paul like it is 2010. Regardless, the Knicks play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA and are the better team, so they should control the tempo.
The New York Knicks host the San Antonio Spurs Wednesday, Christmas 2024 at Madison Square Garden. (Scott Wachter-Imagn Images)
The Spurs are 21st in wide-open 3-point attempts per game this month and the Knicks are 27th. San Antonio is second in defensive free-throw attempt rate and New York is third. Hence, there won't be freebies at the charity stripe. Neither forces many turnovers, which leads to easy buckets on the other end.
As of Sunday, NYK's defensive effective field goal shooting rate (eFG%), which factors 2- and 3-point shooting, is down 37 percentage points from their season-long average (53.8-50.1%) this month. The Knicks allow 5.1 fewer points per game (PPG) at home (111.6-106.1 PPG). The Spurs' eFG% falls 38 percentage points on the road (54.8-51.0%).
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's NBA Christmas 2024 Gambling Tidings Ft. MacKenzie Rivers & David Troy
These teams played one of the most exciting games last season. New York beat San Antonio 130-126 in overtime in March. Brunson scored a career-high 61 points. Wemby had 40 points and 20 rebounds. Between this and the public generally betting Overs, especially in a primetime spot like Christmas morning, the Under should be a contrarian bet.
Prediction: New York 116, San Antonio 107
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Timberwolves (+4.5) at Mavericks, 2:30 p.m. ET
This seems like a trap line since Minnesota (15-15) is on a three-game losing skid, Dallas (19-10) has won eight of the last 10 games, and the Mavs beat the T-Wolves 4-1 in the 2024 Western Conference Finals. However, after looking under the hood of their recent meetings, I can make a case for the Timberwolves covering this spread.
The Mavericks won Games 1-2 by four points combined, and they were tied with the T-Wolves entering the fourth quarter of Game 3, then Dallas pulled away for a 116-107 win. Minnesota saved face by winning Game 4 before getting crushed in an elimination game at home.
Hell, even the Mavs' 120-114 win in their season's first meeting is a little misleading. Minnesota won three of the "four factors" but lost the turnover battle 20-10. I'm giving them a slight pass. It was their fourth game of the season and the T-Wolves made a major change this offseason by trading former All-Star C Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks for All-Star PF Julius Randle.
The Minnesota Timberwolves meet the Dallas Mavericks for the NBA Christmas 2024 extravaganza. (Brad Rempel-Imagn Images)
Granted, Minnesota's offense still sucks, but the defense is locking teams up. The Timberwolves had the best defensive rating in the NBA this month. Plus, the Mavericks are easier to defend when All-Star Luka Dončić plays too much hero ball, which he does too often.
With that in mind, the Mavs average roughly five fewer wide-open 3-point attempts per game. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, make nearly three more 3-pointers per game than their opponents. And, as we've heard LeBron, Barkley, and Shaq complain about, 3-pointers are the end-all-be-all in the NBA nowadays.
Prediction: Minnesota 114, Dallas 109
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76ers at Celtics (-9.5), 5 p.m. ET
With this spread, the sportsbooks are begging for Philadelphia (10-17). The Celtics are an unimpressive 22-7 because they have an 11-18 record against the spread (ATS). Yet, 14 of Boston's 22 wins have been by double figures, including a 132-109 beatdown of the Knicks on opening night.
This leads to my next point: The Celtics will make a statement Christmas by smacking the 76ers because it's one of the few regular-season games that still matter in the NBA. Boston is the reigning NBA champion at full strength and all five starters can shoot 3-pointers and defend.
The Philadelphia 76ers visit the Boston Celtics for their NBA Christmas 2024 game at the TD Garden. (Kyle Ross-Imagn Images)
Since 2022, the Celtics are 10-5 straight up (SU) and ATS vs. the 76ers. Boston has won by 10+ points in five of its last seven wins against the Sixers, who don't have continuity because of injuries. Philadelphia is 3-5 SU in games 2022-23 NBA MVP Joel Embiid plays, including four double-digit losses. Embiid was ejected in the first half of Philly's 111-106 win over San Antonio Monday.
There's always something wrong with that guy. Whether he's throwing a temper tantrum with the refs or flopping or getting legitimately hurt, the Sixers are underperforming expectations because Embiid can't stay on the court. Maybe the 76ers start playing better, but the Celtics are going to show them what's up Christmas.
Prediction: Boston 120, Philadelphia 106
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OVER 224.5 in Lakers at Warriors, 8 p.m. ET
The look-ahead total for this game was 234. It's come crashing down because both teams have been playing trash offense in December. Golden State (15-13) is 26th in offensive rating this month and Los Angeles (16-13) is 28th. Before Monday (when I wrote this piece), the Warriors and Lakers were 2-8 Over/Under (O/U) in their last 10 games.
That said, I prefer my styles make fights analysis over recent form. The Warriors are sixth in pace and the Lakers like to get out in transition. Golden State was 3-1 SU and ATS vs. LAL last season and the total was 3-1 O/U. The average final score of their games was 133.5-124.0 in favor of the Warriors, and they had a +18.0 O/U margin in their four meetings.
Golden State Warriors' Steph Curry defends Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James at Chase Center. (Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, I could see ways both teams can get buckets Christmas. Golden State is a great offensive rebounding team and Los Angeles is a poor defensive rebounding team because Anthony Davis is its only big. The Warriors send opponents to the foul line a lot and the Lakers are second in free-throw attempts per game.
Future Basketball Hall of Famers LeBron James and Steph Curry will want to put on a show since they probably don't have many Christmas games left in their career. There have been 237+ points scored in the Lakers' last five Christmas games and the Warriors are still one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA despite their recent struggles.
Prediction: Golden State 121, Los Angeles 116
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Nuggets at Suns (+3)*, 10:30 p.m. ET
This is the second of a Nuggets-Suns back-to-back, with Denver (16-11) winning the first at home 117-90 Monday. Since it's hard to beat the same team consecutively in basketball, I like to bet on the losing team in these rematches, called the "zigzag theory."
However, I'm not locking in a bet on Phoenix (14-14) unless Devin Booker plays Christmas. Booker has missed the last two games with groin soreness. He leads the Suns in assists per game (6.4) and is their second-leading scorer (25.1 PPG). Barring an eruption by Kevin Durant, Denver will crush Phoenix if Booker doesn't play.
Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker shoots a fadeaway over the Denver Nuggets during the 2023 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena. (Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)
Anyway, I'm betting on a healthy Suns team in this matchup because they solve the math problem, aka 3-point battle, better than the Nuggets. Six of Phoenix's seven leaders in minutes per game are good 3-point shooters, and the Suns are fifth in 3-pointers made per game. Whereas Denver attempts the fewest 3-pointers per game in the NBA.
Finally, the Nuggets are sixth in fastbreak frequency, which might work against them here since the Suns have the second-best offensive efficiency in transition. Essentially, I see the Nuggets speeding up the pace and the Suns lighting up from behind the arc (pun intended). But, again, only if Booker plays.
Prediction: Phoenix 124, Denver 119
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.