Four Best Bets For A Jam-Packed NBA Card On Election Day Eve From An Analyst On A 9-3 Run

Since the NBA takes its civic duty seriously, there are no games on Election Day, November 5, which is annoying because I'd love a FOX News-South Park-NBA multi-view. What's better than seeing former President Donald Trump battle with Vice President Kamala Harris in swing states for the future of our country while gambling on basketball? For me, nothing. 

I'm probably jinxing myself by mentioning it, but I went on an NBA betting heater this weekend. From Friday to Sunday, I went 9-3 in the Association, all given out via X, @Geoffery_Clark. As a result, I'm now four games above-.500 this season and got out of a gambling hole. Let's discuss my favorite looks for Monday. 

NBA Best Bets For November 4th

• Bet 1.08 units (u) on the Miami Heat moneyline (-108) vs. the Sacramento Kings at FanDuel.
• Bet 1.1u on the UNDER 231.5 (-110) in the Toronto Raptors vs. Denver Nuggets at DraftKings.
• Bet 0.89u on Orlando Magic wing Franz Wagner UNDER 19.5 points (-118) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder at BetMGM.
• Bet 1.1u on the San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-110) vs. the Los Angeles Clippers at Caesars Sportsbook.

Kings at Heat (-108), 8:15 p.m. ET

My numbers say Miami should be at least a -3 favorite Monday. The Heat have better coaching and defense, both teams are fully healthy, and neither has beaten a quality opponent. Sacramento big Domantas Sabonis is a tough matchup for most teams. But, not Miami, which has one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA, Bam Adebayo. 

Furthermore, the Heat beat the Kings in both meetings last season. Miami won 121-110 in Sacramento last season without Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, and Jimmy Butler. This goes back to my point about the Heat having "better coaching." Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra finds ways to win regardless of who plays. 

Prediction: Heat 116, Kings 112 

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UNDER 231.5 in Raptors at Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET 

These teams met last week and Denver won 127-125 in overtime. That game had a 223.5 total, which is up 8.0 points for this meeting currently. Per Pregame.com, more than 85% of the action is on the Over for Raptors-Nuggets Part II as of 12:10 p.m. ET. I like betting the opposite of what happened in these rematches on a short turnaround since teams make adjustments. 

In the playoffs, this is called the zig-zag theory. As playoff series progress, games become lower-scoring because teams figure out each other’s tendencies. Granted, this isn’t a playoff series, but their two games are only seven days apart. Raptors-Nuggets Part I combined for 228 points at the end of regulation. 

Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic pushes Toronto Raptors wing Scottie Barnes under the basket at Scotiabank Arena. (John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)

Hence, they would need overtime again for the Over to cash Monday. With that in mind, their first meeting had a nearly league-average pace of 99.6 (the NBA average pace is 99.8). But, the Nuggets are 20th in pace and sixth in offensive turnover rate, so there is a good chance the pace will slow down. 

Their first meeting went Over because Denver scored 20 second-chance points and Toronto had 22 second-chance points. Rebounding is part effort, part random. I expect both teams to do a better job rebounding in their rematch. Finally, the Raptors are 29th in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and threes-per-game, while the Nuggets are last in 3PAr and 22nd in threes per game. 

Prediction: Nuggets 119, Raptors 106 

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Magic at Thunder, 9:15 p.m. ET

Oklahoma City's 94.9 defensive rating is by far the best in the NBA. The next closest team is the Golden State Warriors with a 101.9 defensive rating. OKC puts the clamps on Magic wing Franz Wagner, who has scored more than 15 points once in their four meetings. Wagner is shooting 37.9% from the field, and 16.7% from behind the arc in those games. 

Plus, with the injury to All-Star Paolo Banchero, Orlando doesn't have a point guard and Wagner will have some point-guard duties. Banchero's injury forces Wagner to play power forward, and the Thunder give up the fewest points per game to opposing power forwards. Lastly, Wagner has scored 17 or fewer points in four consecutive games. 

Best Bet: Magic wing Franz Wagner UNDER 19.5 points (-118) 

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Spurs (+3.5) at Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET

San Antonio is a better team when Clippers All-Star Kawhi Leonard doesn't play, and Kawhi is out indefinitely. Spurs' Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the floor and both teams have a below-average pace, 3PAr, and free-throw attempt rate. 

Los Angeles Clippers PG James Harden drives to the hoop on San Antonio Spurs big Victor Wembanyama at Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Scott Wachter-Imagn Images)

Yet, San Antonio is more efficient. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Spurs have better offensive and defensive ratings in the half-court. LAC also gets 5.0 fewer "wide-open" 3-point shots per game than San Antonio. Plus, the Clippers are 25th in shot quality whereas the Spurs are third, per CTG. 

Lastly, the market may be overreacting to Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich's health issue, which will sideline him for the near future. Per Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on the Clippers and the line isn't budging. But, this is the benefit of the Spurs having PG Chris Paul; he is a coach on the floor. 

Prediction: Spurs 113, Clippers 111 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.