The Scariest Part About Halloween Will Be The Ugly Houston Texans Vs. New York Jets Game
Maybe I'm taking crazy pills, but "UNDER 42.5" (down to 41) for the Houston Texans (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6) on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 9 is a lock. Per Pregame.com and Pro Football Focus (PFF), roughly three-fourths of the bets are on the Over. I'd wait until closer to kickoff before betting the Under in hopes of getting a better number.
Perhaps the public thinks the "43" total is too low for a game between Texans QB C.J. Stroud and Jets QB Aaron Rodgers. But, both offenses suck and the defenses are good. Houston is 20th in points per play and fourth in yards per play allowed. NYJ is second in yards per play allowed and 25th in points per play.
Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon runs the ball vs. the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)
Also, the Texans are missing their top two pass-catchers: WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Regardless, establishing the run has been a priority for Houston's coaching staff. Texans RB Joe Mixon has at least 25 carries in three of his five games this season and four 100-plus-yard performances.
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However, according to NFL data dude Sam Hoppen, NYJ's defense is 23rd in explosive run rate and sixth vs. the pass. The Texans are second in explosive pass rate allowed and will force Rodgers to dink and dunk. Between Mixon's high usage and Houston's bend but don't break defense, there should be a lot of running clock Thursday.
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud with the medical staff after suffering an injury vs. the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, the Jets dominated the Texans in their 30-6 victory last season. Houston had just 10 first downs and a season-low 135 total yards. With Collins playing, Stroud completed 10o f 23 passes for 91 yards and a career-worst 54.8 QB Rating. New York knocked Stroud out of the game and missed the next two games.
Best Bet: UNDER 42.5 (-110) in Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
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‘Same Game Parlay’ at FanDuel (+1727)
- UNDER 42.5 for the game
- Jets QB Aaron Rodgers UNDER 229.5 passing yards
- Texans TE Dalton Schultz UNDER 40.5 receiving yards
- Houston QB C.J. Stroud OVER 8.5 rushing yards
- Texans RB Joe Mixon anytime touchdown
This is a pizza money bet. I.e. don't wager a lot of money on this Same Game Parlay (SGP). It's a 17-to-1 payout for a reason. The first leg of this SGP is straightforward: since it's my "best bet". As for the second leg, 209 is the most passing yards Houston has allowed this season, and it's faced Green Bay Packers' Jordan Love and Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen.
Schultz has gone Over 34 receiving yards once this season, and he ranks 28th for tight ends in fantasy points. According to PFF, Schultz has one of the worst coverage matchups of Week 9. Jets LB Quincy Williams is supposed to cover Schultz, and Williams has the 10th-best pass coverage grade among 74 NFL linebackers.
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud scrambles against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. (Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)
My SGP includes Stroud's rushing yards total because he's rushed for 12+ yards five times this season. Because New York has one of the best pass rushes in the league, and Houston is 20th in sack rate allowed, Stroud will have to use his legs Thursday.
Lastly, Mixon has six total touchdowns in his five games this season (five rushing and one receiving). On top of that, my SGP payout exponentially increases when adding Mixon's anytime TD to my Under for the game because those are contrasting bets.
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