Best Bets For The 2024 College Football Power Conference Championship Games
It's crazy how quickly the 2024 college football season went. It felt like I was making my Heisman Trophy predictions just yesterday, but we are already at the conference championships. College football's four Power conferences play their title games Saturday, December 7. Since I'm a "casual" college football fan and bettor, I'm only betting the major conferences.
These include the Big XII Championship — Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona State Sun Devils, the SEC Championship — Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns, the ACC Championship — Clemson Tigers and SMU Mustangs, and the Big Ten Championship — Penn State Nittany Lions and Oregon Ducks.
2024 College Football Power Conference Championship Best Bets
- Arizona State Sun Devils moneyline (-115) vs. Iowa State via Caesars Sportsbook.
- Georgia Bulldogs +3 (-110) vs. Texas Longhorns via Fanatics Sportsbook.
- SMU Mustangs -2.5 (-110) vs. Clemson Tigers via Caesars.
- Penn State Nittany Lions +3.5 (-110) vs. Oregon Ducks via DraftKings.
Big XII Championship: Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-115), noon ET
Kansas State, 25th on TeamRankings.com, is the best win either team has on their resume. They both played KSU last month, but Arizona State’s is more impressive because it was on the road. The Sun Devils had an 83% "postgame win expectancy" vs. Kansas State and Iowa State had a 5% postgame win expectancy, per CollegeFootballData.com.
ASU is better at quarterback and has a strength-on-weakness edge in rushing. Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt has a better Pro Football Focus grade (88.8-73.4) and QB Rating (154.9-138.1) than Cyclones QB Rocco Becht. Iowa State’s defense is 112th in yards per rush allowed, and Arizona State is 13th nationally in rush rate and 21st in rushing yards per game.
Big XII newcomers, the Arizona State Sun Devils, play the Iowa State Cyclones Saturday in the conference title game. (Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)
This has nothing to do with gambling, but I like Sun Devils second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham’s story. According to his Wikipedia page, Dillingham is a Phoenix native who graduated from Arizona State in 2012, and coaching his alma mater was a childhood dream. He is the first ASU alumnus and Arizonan to be the Sun Devils' head coach.
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More importantly, Dillingham is only 34 years old and has a sharp, young offensive mind, and offense is more predictive than defense. As Auburn's offensive coordinator (OC) in 2019, he helped QB Bo Nix win SEC Rookie of the Year. Nix transferred to Oregon in 2022 and led the nation in completion rate when Dillingham was the Ducks' OC.
Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell sucks in these "coin-flip" games. The Cyclones are 5-15 straight up (SU) when priced between +3 underdogs and -3 favorites in the Campbell era (est. 2016). They are 2-4 SU and ATS in bowl games with a -5.0 spread differential over that span and 1-4 SU with a -4.4 scoring margin in neutral-site games.
Prediction: Sun Devils 27, Cyclones 21
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SEC Championship: Georgia (+3) vs. Texas, 4 p.m. ET
The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns 30-15 in Austin as +4.5 road underdogs earlier this season. Georgia completely shut down Texas’s ground game. The Longhorns had 29 rushing yards on 27 carries. The Bulldogs can make UT’s offense one-dimensional again in the SEC title game because the Longhorns don't have a dual-threat quarterback.
Only three teams have successfully run the ball vs. Georgia: Alabama, UMass, and Georgia Tech. Never mind that UMass game. The Bulldogs beat the Minutemen 59-21 and didn’t care about UMass running the ball. However, the big reason 'Bama and Georgia Tech had success is that they have dual-threat quarterbacks.
The Georgia Bulldogs face the Texas Longhorns in the 2024 SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Saturday. (Jay Janner/American-Statesman-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe had a team-high 177 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs. Georgia Tech QB Haynes King ran for a team-high 110 yards and 3 TDs. Texas QB Quinn Ewers, on the other hand, isn't a threat to run. He has -35 rushing yards this season and only 1 rushing TD. Even though sacks count against quarterbacks’ rushing total in college football, you get the point.
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Also, this isn’t sharp analysis, but I don’t think Texas will win the conference title in its first season in the SEC. That would be contrary to everything I know about college football. Plus, the Longhorns don't have many quality wins despite their SEC schedule. Their best win this season was Texas A&M on the road, # 17 at TeamRankings.com.
Georgia has three wins vs. top-15 teams: #15 Clemson 34-3 on a neutral field, #1 Texas, and #7 Tennessee 31-7 at home. Tennessee is projected to be one of the 12 College Football Playoff teams. Texas A&M is a solid 8-5 team. They aren’t the same. Neither are the Bulldogs and Longhorns, which is why Georgia will win the SEC Saturday.
Prediction: Bulldogs 34, Longhorns 17
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ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5), 8 p.m. ET
Initially, I thought I'd bet Clemson here. I made a lot of money betting on the Tigers during their glory years from 2015-19. During that stretch, Clemson made the College Football Playoff (CFP) four times, winning two national championships and losing another to Alabama.
However, those days appear to be over. In fact, the only reason SMU isn't a bigger favorite to win the 2024 ACC Championship is that casual fans, like myself, still consider Clemson a national powerhouse. The Mustangs have a better net EPA, yards-per-play differential, and scoring margin than the Tigers.
Clemson and SMU have played five common opponents: Stanford, Florida State, Virginia, Louisville, and Pittsburgh. The Tigers lost to Louisville at home, while the Mustangs have beaten all five, including Louisville on the road, and have a higher scoring margin in each game.
Prediction: Mustangs 28, Tigers 21
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Big Ten Championship: Penn State (+3.5) vs. Oregon, 8 p.m. ET
No one is betting on the Nittany Lions because head coach James Franklin is 1-14 in his career vs. top-five teams, including a loss earlier this season to then-No. 4 Ohio State. According to Pregame.com, more than 75% of the action is on the Ducks as of Friday evening.
Despite the one-way betting action towards Oregon, the line hasn't budged off the opener, which should scare Ducks backers. Meanwhile, Penn State has played a slightly tougher schedule but has a higher net EPA, yards-per-play differential, and scoring margin than Oregon.
The Penn State Nittany Lions meet the Oregon Ducks in the 2024 Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana Saturday. (Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)
Sports Reference has a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends strength of schedule with scoring margin. The Ducks have a +20.1 SRS and the Nittany Lions have a +17.8 SRS. With that in mind, this spread is on the wrong side of 3. Meaning, Penn State should be +2.5 or lower.
I gave out the Nittany Lions to win the 2024 Big Ten Championship at +500 odds preseason. Granted, they needed Ohio State to lose twice, but I'm not hedging or selling my Penn State stock now. Regardless of expansion, this is PSU's best chance to win the conference since Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh left, and Franklin will capitalize on this opportunity.
Prediction: Nittany Lions 27, Ducks 24
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