Best Bets For College Basketball's Power 5 Final Regular-Season Slate

It's March but we aren't into March Madness yet. Instead, this is the final regular-season slate of the college basketball season. Numerous regular-season conference titles are up for grabs Saturday. We'll take a shot at the biggest game on the card, and the biggest rivalry in college hoops: North Carolina vs. Duke. 

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Aside from the Tobacco Road Rivalry, I'm hitting a few more Power 5 conference tilts including the mega SEC showdown between Kentucky and Tennessee, a Big East battle pitting Marquette against Xavier, and the country's hottest team, Iowa State, visiting Kansas State. Let's get into the analysis. 

College Hoops Saturday 

• The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5) at Kansas State Wildcats, 2 p.m. ET

This is clearly a "sucker bet". Usually, you want to fade ranked teams on the road in conference games. Especially, when motivation is a question for the ranked team. Iowa State has locked up a two-round bye in next week's Big XII Tournament. Yet, I cannot help myself. The Cyclones are 9-0 straight up (SU) and 6-3 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite in Big XII games with a +10.2 scoring margin. 

More importantly, Iowa State should easily win the "battle of possessions". According to Ken Pom, the Cyclones lead the conference in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and the Wildcats are dead last offensively. Iowa State leads the country in "potential quick points off of breakaway steals" and Kansas State is 255th defensively in that metric, per Erik Haslam. 

Iowa State Cyclones SG Keshon Gilbert beats Kansas State Wildcats guard Cam Carter to a loose ball at James H. Hilton Coliseum. (Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, the Cyclones crash the glass like madmen and the Wildcats suck at grabbing boards. Iowa State ranks 5th in offensive rebounding rate in the Big XII and Kansas State is 12th in defensive rebounding rate, per Ken Pom. 

The Cyclones won their 1st meeting with the Wildcats 78-67 at home Jan. 24th and Iowa State won three of the "four factors". Finally, Kansas State is limping down the stretch and Iowa State is peaking. The Cyclones are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games while the Wildcats have won just three of their past 10 games. 

DraftKings has the best price for Iowa State at -3.5 (-105). I'd play the Cyclones up to -4.

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No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats (+7.5) at No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers, 4 p.m. ET 

There's just too much line movement from the 1st Kentucky-Tennessee game this season. The Volunteers "upset" the Wildcats 103-92 as +1.5 road underdogs in Kentucky last month. When you give UT a boost for home-court advantage, Tennessee should be -6.5 favorites. Not -7.5. 

The Wildcats shoot well from behind the arc on the road and at home and the Volunteers allow too many 3-pointers defensively. They hit 42.4% of their threes at home and 39.8% on the road. According to Ken Pom, Tennessee is 309th in defensive 3-point attempt rate. "UT -7.5" is too big of a spread if it allows UK to chuck threes Saturday.

Kentucky Wildcats guard Justin Edwards goes to the rack on the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. (Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, Kentucky needs this game more. It's Tennessee's "Senior Day" but it already clinched a 1-seed for the 2024 SEC Tournament. With a win, the Wildcats can clinch a double-bye into the 2024 SEC Tournament quarterfinals. 

Kentucky is the bigger team and can keep Tennessee off the glass. Finally, the Volunteers are 263rd in defensive FT/FGA rate and the Wildcats are 25th in free throw percentage, according to Ken Pom. If UT is too aggressive defensively, it could give UK easy points at the charity stripe. 

BET Kentucky +7.5 (-110) at FanDuel. I'd play the Wildcats down to +6.5. 

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No. 8 Marquette Golden Eagles at Xavier Musketeers (+2.5), 5 p.m. ET

I'm going with the sharp approach for this game and taking the points with Xavier. Marquette smacked the Musketeers 88-64 at home earlier this season. But, the Golden Eagles are only -2.5 to -3 favorites here, so the market is saying this isn't a great spot for them. They opened as -4 favorites and fell despite most of the action being on Marquette at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. 

The market is selling stock on the Golden Eagles Saturday because they will be without their best player, PG Tyler Kolek. He got hurt in Marquette's 91-69 win vs. Providence at the end of February. Since then, the Golden Eagles have lost and failed to cover back-to-back games vs. the Creighton Bluejays and UConn Huskies. 

Marquette Golden Eagles forward David Joplin goes for a rebound against the Xavier Musketeers at Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

Granted, those are much better teams than Xavier. That said, per Erik Haslam, Marquette ranks 350th out of 362 D1 schools in "away-home consistency" and is 4-5 ATS in Big East road games. Plus, Kolek leads Marquette with 7.6 assists per game and the Golden Eagles dished just 15 combined assists in their last two games. 

Lastly, the Musketeers should own the glass. They are +2.6 in rebounds per game and the Golden Eagles are -2.5 in rebounds per game. Xavier is 30th in Haslam's "second-chance conversion percentage" off of offensive rebounds. 

BET Xavier +3 (-108) at DraftKings. The Musketeers are bet-able down to +2. 

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No. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 9 Duke Blue Devils (-5), 6:30 p.m. ET 

Since the Tar Heels are ranked in the top 10 nationally and beat the Blue Devils 93-84 Feb. 3rd, UNC will most likely be a public 'dog Saturday. According to Pregame.com, North Carolina is getting slightly more action than Duke at the time of writing. But, the Blue Devils opened as -4.5 favorites, hence the sharp money is on Duke. 

Adding to that, the Blue Devils are terrible on the road so we should see a better effort at Cameron Indoor Stadium. According to Erik Haslam, Duke is 311th in "away-home consistency" and UNC is 249th. The Blue Devils shot just 5-for-19 (26.3%) from 3-point land vs. the Tar Heels earlier this season. At home, Duke shoots 38.8% from deep. 

North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis attacks the basket on Duke Blue Devils  C Kyle Filipowski at Dean E. Smith Center. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Ultimately, the Blue Devils should be able to run their offense since UNC ranks 298th in defensive TOV%, per Ken Pom. Duke is 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency nationally and 20th in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting. 

Typically, the Tar Heels own their opponents on the glass but the Blue Devils have a higher average height and grab 5.5 more rebounds per game than their opponents. On top of that, Duke has more minutes' continuity despite North Carolina having more D1 experience, according to Ken Pom. 

This game is for the ACC regular-season title and I'll take the better shooting team at home with more continuity. 

BET Duke -5 (-110) at Caesars. Give me the Blue Devils up to -6. 

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