'Fading The Public': Cleveland Browns At Denver Broncos Monday In NFL Week 13
One team is in playoff contention and the other is playing for pride when the Denver Broncos (7-5) host the Cleveland Browns (3-8) for Monday Night Football in NFL Week 13. Denver is the third, and final, wild-card team currently in the AFC playoffs. Cleveland, while not officially eliminated from the postseason, sits at the bottom of the AFC North.
The Broncos won back-to-back games over the Atlanta Falcons (28-6) in Week 11 and the Las Vegas Raiders (29-19) last week. The Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-19 at home on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, snapping a two-game losing skid.
At DraftKings, Denver's moneyline is -270, Cleveland has a +220 moneyline, the Broncos are -6.5 (-105), and the total is 42 (Over -108, Under -112). According to Pregame.com, roughly 80% of the action across the market is on Denver and nearly 65% of the bets are on the Over at the time of publishing.
Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-115)
Browns backup QB Jameis Winston has been a clear upgrade from QB Deshaun Watson. Winston is 2-2 and has a 100.0+ QB Rating in two of his four starts this season. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Winston is the eighth-highest-graded quarterback in the NFL. Winston has a better QBR (66.8-56.7) and success rate (45.9-42.3%) than Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix.
Also, I like Cleveland's defensive line here. According to PFF, Denver's offensive line has a disadvantage in this matchup in run- and pass-blocking. The Broncos beat the Browns 29-12, but Cleveland pressured former Denver QB Russell Wilson on 32.0% of his dropbacks. Last week, the Browns pressured Wilson on 33.3% of his dropbacks.
Former Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson runs away from Cleveland Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett at Empower Field at Mile High in Colorado. (Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
For context, the Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL with a 28.1% pressure rate. Cleveland is second in pressure rate and fourth in pass-rush win rate and first in run-stopping win rate, per ESPN. Nix is 1-3 in games where he has been pressured in at least 21.0% of his dropbacks. His only win in that sample was over the New York Jets, 10-9, and Nix only had 60 passing yards.
Finally, Nix is a little overrated right now after playing two good games against bad defenses. Atlanta is 29th in pressure rate and Las Vegas is 27th. Denver is tied with Cleveland for the most time to throw, but Nix won't have as much time in the pocket Monday.
Prediction: Browns 23, Broncos 19
- I'd sprinkle on Cleveland's +220 moneyline. For example, if you bet $10 on the Browns +6.5 (-115), throw another $3 on Cleveland upsetting Denver outright.
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‘Same Game Parlay’ at DraftKings (+2000)
- Cleveland +6.5
- Browns RB Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown
- Broncos QB Bo Nix UNDER 223.5 passing yards
- Cleveland WR Jerry Jeudy OVER 4.5 receptions
- Denver WR Devaughn Vele UNDER 38.5 receiving yards
Denver is tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs (4) and Chubb is Cleveland's bell cow running back. Two weeks ago, Chubb rushed for two touchdowns, his first of the year, since making his season debut in Week 7. The Browns will give Chubb at least 20 carries and all the goal-line touches.
Nix has thrown for 224+ yards in four of his 12 games this year. Unless the Broncos go down big early, which I doubt they will, head coach Sean Payton will protect his rookie quarterback from Cleveland's pass rush by having him attempt fewer passes. Plus, Nix's pass yards prop is higher at DraftKings than every other sportsbook.
This is a revenge game for Jeudy, who was drafted by the Broncos in 2020 and was traded to Cleveland this offseason. More importantly, Jeudy has 5+ catches in six of his 11 games this season, including four straight since Winston has taken over as Cleveland's starting quarterback.
Pinnacle Sportsbook has Vele's receiving yards prop at 36.5 with heavier juice on the Under. That's relevant because Pinnacle is a "market-making sportsbook" that other oddsmakers copy. I.e. I'm siding with Pinnacle over DraftKings. Lastly, Vele is Denver's No. 2 wide receiver and Nix won't have enough time to go through his progressions.
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