3 Best Bets In Baltimore Ravens At Kansas City Chiefs In 2024 NFL Kickoff Game
The Baltimore Ravens learned yet again last season that the NFL is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs’ world, and they are just living in it. As +4 road underdogs, the Chiefs upset the Ravens 17-10 in the 2023-24 AFC Championship.
Kansas City scored on its first two possessions with 86- and 75-yard-TD drives while holding the ball for nearly a full quarter. The Chiefs added a field goal at the end of the first half and held the Ravens to three second-half points.
(For the record, I stupidly bet Baltimore in that game). Well, the Ravens get their chance for revenge in the 2024 NFL Kickoff Game Thursday, September 5 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce and QB Patrick Mahomes celebrate after beating the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship. (Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)
At DraftKings, the Chiefs are -3 (-102) with a moneyline of -155 (Baltimore is +130) and a total of 47. Since home-field advantage is worth 2.5-3 points in the NFL, the sportsbooks say "The Ravens and Chiefs are equal teams on a neutral playing field".
The Dude does NOT abide.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs Best Bets
- 0.51 units (u) on the Chiefs -3 (-102) over the Ravens at DraftKings.
- 0.25u on Kansas City RB Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown (+115) at FanDuel.
- 0.28u Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson OVER 48.5 rushing yards (-113) at FanDuel.
Chiefs -3 (-102) over Ravens
Baltimore lost three starting offensive linemen from last year’s team and three defensive coaches, including defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, directly impacting its two biggest strengths: Defense and the ground game.
The Ravens' offensive line features two first-year starters, RT Roger Rosengarten and LG Andrew Vorhees, and third-year RG Daniel Faalele, who had a 48.7 position grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF) last season.
Chiefs All-Pro DT Chris Jones is the best interior pass rusher in the league now that Aaron Donald has retired. Jones is going to blow up Baltimore’s interior offensive line. While Kansas City traded CB L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans this offseason, the Chiefs still have a good secondary and can sell out to stop the run.
KC starting corners Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams and slot CB Chamarri Conner graded out fourth, 25th, and 11th among 127 qualified cornerbacks on PFF last year. Furthermore, Lamar Jackson isn’t a skilled enough passer nor has good enough receivers to beat Kansas City’s pass coverage.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson drops back to pass on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. (Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)
Ravens WRs Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman are 82nd and 85th among 128 receivers, according to PFF. Besides WR Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews, Lamar doesn’t have many weapons. If the Chiefs "pack the box" and make Lamar beat them with his arm, I’ll live with the results.
Also, Baltimore’s defense has to regress year over year because Macdonald is a defensive wunderkind. NFL analysts say Macdonald does similar things with defensive spacing as San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan does with offenses.
Granted, the Ravens still have Pro Bowl LB Roquan Smith and S Kyle Hamilton. But, if Baltimore’s defense even takes a small step back, Andy Reid and Mahomes will find a way to win this game.
The public might be scarred by KC’s 21-20 loss to the Detroit Lions in the 2023 NFL Kickoff Game. However, Chiefs' future hall of fame TE Travis Kelce was out with an injury and Jones sat Week 1 because of a contract dispute with the team. Unfortunately for Baltimore, KC will have its full squad Thursday and be motivated for the threepeat.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Ravens 24
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Player Props
Kansas City RB Isiah Pacheco anytime TD
Pacheco scored 12 TDs last year. With player props, it’s smarter to bet medians rather than averages, and Pacheco scored TDs in 11 of his 18 games last season. One of those touchdowns was in the AFC title game against the Ravens. Also, per NFL analyst Adam Chernoff, Pacheco’s "anytime TD" price has closed at cheaper odds than what’s being listed at FanDuel for Thursday’s game. I.e. we are getting a good price on this bet.
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco celebrates after a TD vs. the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson OVER 48.5 rushing yards
Lamar has gone Over this total in four of his five career games against the Chiefs, including 54 rushing yards in the AFC title game. Baltimore was rightfully criticized for not running the ball more in last year's AFC championship, so I'm betting that changes Thursday. Finally, Jackson might look to scramble more because the Ravens parted ways with three offensive linemen this offseason.
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