A Bet For Recent NBA Champs Playing Thursday: Denver Nuggets At Milwaukee Bucks
Oddly, the Denver Nuggets (38-20) at the Milwaukee Bucks (32-25) at 8 p.m. ET is the only game for Thursday's NBA on TNT. If it were the NFL, the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. the Los Angeles Lakers 2.5 hours later would be "flexed" onto primetime TV.
Instead, I have to go to the bar to watch Timberwolves-Lakers even though I'm an NBA League Pass subscriber in Long Beach, California, because Lakers games are blacked out in LA County on YouTube TV. This might piss me off more than anything in the world. Thanks, Adam Silver.
Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks Odds (BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Denver (-170) | Milwaukee (+140)
- Spread: NUGGETS -3.5 (-110) | Bucks +3.5 (-110)
- Total — 240.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Anyway, this is a meeting between two recent champions and five of the last six NBA MVPs: Denver's Nikola Jokić (three-time winner in 2021-22 and last season) and Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo (back-to-back winner in 2018-20). This has been a one-sided matchup favoring Jokić, who's won 10 of 15 career games against Giannis.
Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo is pressured by Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokić and PF Aaron Gordon at Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin. (Photo credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images)
More importantly, the Nuggets have been smacking teams this month, while the Bucks have been meh. Denver is 9-1 straight up (SU) in February with the third-ranked non-garbage time net rating (+14.6), per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Compared to Milwaukee, which is 6-5 SU this month and 17th in net rating (-3.7).
Regardless, I'm using the same analysis here as I did when successfully betting on the Nuggets in their 125-116 win at the Indiana Pacers Monday as -5 road favorites: Betting on the more efficient offense in an up-tempo game. The Nuggets are fifth in pace and the Bucks are ninth. But, Denver has a better shot quality on both ends of the floor, according to CTG.
Also, if Nuggets PG Jamal Murray continues playing as well as he has this month, they are a top-five NBA team. Murray is scoring 24.6 PPG in February on 67.8% true shooting (.546/.524/.880) with a 133 offensive rating. For context, the Cleveland Cavaliers lead the Association with a 124.1 offensive rating in non-garbage time, per CTG.
Furthermore, the Nuggets do my favorite thing on offense: Run on rebounds and off of steals. Doing this improves teams' looks because their opponents aren't set on defense. Denver leads the NBA in fastbreak PPG and gets out in transition at the fourth-highest rate, including first off of steals and fifth after defensive rebounds, according to CTG.
Milwaukee is 18th in fastbreak defensive efficiency and 29th after rebounds. Their poor transition defense makes sense if you think about the Bucks. All-Star PG, Damian Lillard, is one of the worst perimeter defenders in the NBA, C Brook Lopez is a 36-year-old big, and SF Kyle Kuzma doesn't even know how to play defense. This puts too much on Giannis's plate defensively.
Prediction: Denver 123, Milwaukee 115
- For the record, I'm risking 1.1 units on the Nuggets -3.5 (-110) to profit 1u at BetMGM.
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