Best Bet 4-Pack For A Big College Hoops Saturday, February 18
I'm more of an NBA guy but, since it's All-Star weekend, my Saturday is wide-open to gamble on college basketball. The games I have betting looks on include Oklahoma State-TCU, Baylor-Kansas, Duke-Syracuse, and Texas A&M-Missouri.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-10) at TCU Horned Frogs (17-9), 2 p.m. ET
I jumped the gun on TCU G Mike Miles Jr.'s availability earlier this week when I bet TCU to cover at the Iowa State Cyclones. But, Horned Frogs head coach Jamie Dixon confirmed Miles will return vs. OK State.
Miles is the Horned Frogs' leading scorer at 18.3 points per game (PPG) on 53.2% shooting. TCU is 1-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) without Miles.
The wiseguys understand how important Miles is to TCU. According to VSIN, more than 85% of the cash at DraftKings Sportsbook is on the Horned Frogs whereas roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Cowboys.
Typically, it's wise to follow the money when it's counter to the public because professional bettors wager a lot more dough than you or I. Especially in this spot when they are backing a slumping TCU team that lost to OK State just two Saturdays ago.
TCU Horned Frogs G Mike Miles Jr. dribbles up court vs. the Oklahoma Sooners at Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. (Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Plus Pinnacle Sportsbook (Pinny) lists TCU's spread with a heavier vig than OK State's at the time of writing. Pinny is one of the sharpest oddsmakers in the world and is trying to bait its whale bettors into backing the Cowboys.
With Miles back in the fold, I'm confident TCU's offense can get back on track at home. But, OK State ranks 319th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 232nd in 3-point percentage. TCU's defense is 21st in TOV% and 33rd in 3-point percentage.
College Hoops Best Bet #1: TCU -5 (-110), up to -5.5
No. 9 Baylor Bears (20-6) at No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks (21-5), 4 p.m. ET
Point blank, Baylor +5 is too many points. The Bears didn't even shoot well and they beat Kansas 75-69 last month. Granted, Baylor was the home team but it won because the Bears were more aggressive.
They grabbed six more offensive rebounds than the Jayhawks, attempted nine more free throws and hit four more 3s on 11 more 3-point attempts. I don't see this changing in Baylor-Kansas part II.
The Bears are 11th in offensive rebounding and 39th in offensive FT/FGA rate (out of 363 schools), per Ken Pom. The Jayhawks are 180th in defensive rebounding and 222nd in defensive FT/FGA rate.
Baylor Bears G LJ Cryer drives to the basket vs. the Kansas Jayhawks at Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas. (Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
There's a solid chance Baylor's 3-point shooting falls off a cliff in Kansas's home gym. But, I'm willing to take that chance because the Bears will crash the glass and attack the rim as well.
Kansas on the other hand ranks 239th in offensive FT/FGA rate, 280th in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr), and 134th in offensive rebounding. The Jayhawks are more of a finesse team.
Lastly, Baylor is 3-1 SU and ATS as underdogs this season whereas Kansas is 3-6 ATS as favorites of -5 or more.
College Hoops Best Bet #2: Baylor +5 (-110), down to +4.5
Duke Blue Devils (18-8) at Syracuse Orange (16-10), 6 p.m. ET
Why is Duke only -1.5 or -1.5 favorites (depending on where you look)? The Blue Devils are most likely headed to the Big Dance and the Orange is a probable NIT team who is 0-5 vs. Quad 1 teams.
Ken Pom ranks Duke 42nd in adjusted efficiency margin and Syracuse 89th. The Blue Devils have seven top-100 RSCI players according to Sports Reference and the Orange have three.
Also, the lowest Duke has been favored over Syracuse in their last 10 meetings has been -6 back in 2021. Duke is 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS vs. Syracuse in those contests.
Yet the Blue Devils are only -1.5 at the time of writing and nearly 90% of the action at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Duke, per VSIN. Call me crazy but I'm going to side with the sportsbooks here.
Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim reacts during the 2nd half vs. North Carolina at JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse, New York. (Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)
The Blue Devils are the biggest team in the country and freshman C Kyle Filipowski leads Duke in points (15.1) and rebounds (9.1). But they are young and cannot shoot.
Duke ranks 258th in 3-point percentage. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim's famed 2-3 zone packs the paint forces opponents to make threes. The Blue Devil cannot bust the Orange's zone.
Furthermore, Syracuse senior C Jesse Edwards can neutralize Filipowski. Edwards leads the ACC in blocks per game (2.9) and 2nd in both PER and defensive rating.
Finally, this is an awful spot for Duke and a good spot for Syracuse. The Blue Devils are 1-8 ATS in its their nine road games and 3-12 ATS in ACC play while the Orange is 9-3-3 ATS in ACC play.
College Hoops Best Bet #3: Syracuse +1.5 (-110), down to pick 'em
Texas A&M Aggies (19-7) at Missouri Tigers (19-7), 6 p.m. ET
Let's fade what we saw last from both teams, which was horrible offense, and BET OVER 152.5 (-110). Texas A&M eked past Arkansas 62-56 at home Wednesday and Missouri got crushed 89-56 on the road by Auburn Tuesday.
However, the Aggies are 4-1 Over/Under (O/U) as road underdogs this season with a +6.7 O/U margin. The Tigers are 9-3 O/U as home favorites with a +14.1 O/U margin and they are -2 at the time of writing.
Style make fights and Texas A&M-Missouri screams "shootout" when you look at their numbers. The Tigers have the 2nd-worst defensive rebounding rate in the country and the Aggies are 9th in offensive rebounding.
Texas A&M has the 3rd-highest offensive FT/FGA rate. Missouri's defense is 279th in FT/FGA rate allowed because it applies intense pressure to ball handlers. The Tigers are 2nd in steal percentage and the Aggies' offense is 284th in steal percentage.
Missouri Tigers G Kobe Brown shoots over Mississippi State Bulldogs G Eric Reed Jr. at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Mississippi. (Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
More importantly, Missouri is sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 16th in effective field goal shooting, according to Ken Pom. Texas A&M is 348th in 3PAr allowed. I.e. the Aggies will allow the Tigers to chuck 3s.
Texas A&M-Missouri on Jan. 11 fell short of their 152.5-point total in 82-64 Aggies home win. But, the Tigers laid an egg offensively in the 1st half of that game, scoring just 25 points.
The oddsmakers making Texas A&M-Missouri part II's total 152.5 tells me not to overreact to part I's result and both teams previous offensive performance.
In fact, according to VSIN, there is more money on the Over at DraftKings for this game but more bets are placed on the Under. This is also a Pros vs. Joes game in the betting market. Follow the money.