Berrios, Kirby, Will Stifle Opponents

Blue Jays vs. Mariners, 4:10 ET

When I buy MLB The Show, and I really don't buy it or any sports game every year, I almost always do a Franchise mode and pretend to be the GM. To me, there is nothing more enjoyable than playing the season by simulating the games and getting to the offseason to make trades or manage free agents. I've always thought that was the coolest part of baseball. As I've gotten older, I realize that it isn't just the offseason where things happen. During the season there are a ton of decisions being made. The Blue Jays, who play today, are faced with a bunch of decisions right now about how to mange their future. Their opponent, the Mariners, are in a much better situation, but still need to figure out an offense if they want to have true hope of winning the crown.  

There aren't that many days left for Toronto to decide what they want to do. Every time you read a report about them you get somewhat mixed messages. The majority seem to align that they are going to trade key pieces of their team, but the differentiation is on just how key the members of the team are that they are going to trade. For example, some say that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on his way out the door. Others say they have no intention of trading him and are looking to create a long term deal with him. Some say that Kevin Gausman is going to be dealt by the deadline. Again, others suggest there isn't much of a market for him because he hasn't pitched well and Toronto doesn't want to sell him for pennies on the dollar. I think the front office has to see, fairly clearly, this is not the year for them to compete or make the playoffs. Sure, they could go on a tear and make it happen, but it is rather unlikely. It would take a miracle for them to catch the Yankees for the division, and it would be rather unlikely they can overcome all of the middle-tier teams to grab a Wild Card spot, so expect some changes to this roster in the coming days. I'd be surprised if there wasn't at least some interest on today's starter, Jose Berrios. Berrios comes into this game with a 8-6 record and a 3.63 ERA. He also is owner of the 25th best WHIP in baseball, which means that he could be pitching even better than his ERA is reflecting. He has struggled lately, allowing at least four earned runs in three of his past four outings, but outside of this stretch, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any game. He faced the Mariners earlier in the season and was spectacular, going 6.2 innings and allowing just four hits and no runs. Over his career, he has held the Mariners hitters to just a .179 batting average against him.

May 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby (68) delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners should be buyers at the deadline and there is a very clear need for this team: hitting. Will they be willing to move prospects for the team, or even one of these strong Major League arms? That's the question that is left to be answered. The pitching staff has been very good this season, and the rotation remains the strong point of the club. Personally, I think they have the rotation that could lead them to a World Series sooner rather than later, but the biggest issue is that their hitting might cause them to lose a ton of 1-run games or even 1-0 playoff games. For the season, the team is hitting just .217. They have around the same number of runs scored as the Blue Jays, but they are multiple games over .500 and the Blue Jays are multiple games under. A concern about their runs is that they have 96 homers for the year. About a third of their runs scored this year have come as the result of a long ball. That isn't a sustainable way to win a game. Today, George Kirby takes the hill and looks to position them to win another one against the Blue Jays. Kirby has been strong all season with a 7-6 record, 3.32 ERA, and the 7th-best WHIP in baseball at 0.98. He had a beautiful June, going 31 innings and allowing just six earned runs. He followed that up with a great 6.1 inning outing and two runs allowed in his first July start. He did face Toronto earlier in the year, and it was an ugly one as he allowed five earned runs over four innings.

I kind of feel like the Blue Jays are live dogs in this game, but I'm not too sure that I can pull the trigger on this one. The Blue Jays aren't a terrible team, they are just underperforming so it feels like we shouldn't be betting on them. Usually that means we get some good value on them, but the Mariners are a very good home team, so I prefer to take a shot on the under. I think that Berrios has proven he is good against this lineup and Kirby is pitching very well. I'm comfortable taking the first five under 3.5 at even money, or under 4.5 if you can find it at -135 or less.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024