Bears Are 'Right Side' At Lions In Week 11 And May Pull Off Upset
Nine games isn't a lot so let's not crown the Detroit Lions (7-2) yet. Don't get me wrong, I like the Lions and they are playing well. But, Detroit is -8 favorites when hosting the Chicago Bears (3-7) in NFL Week 11. This is just too big of a number for an unproven Lions team.
Especially against the Bears who are better than their record indicates and whose starting QB returns this week. The Lions' last two wins vs. the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers were 1-score games and Detroit's pass defense got exposed.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert lit the Lions up in a 41-38 loss last week. Herbert threw for 323 yards with 4 TD passes and no sacks taken. Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo missed wide-open would-be TD passes to WR Davante Adams in a 26-14 Week 8 loss.
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Granted, Bears QB Justin Fields isn't a great pocket passer. However, he looked great in two games before getting hurt vs. the Minnesota Vikings in Week 6. Fields threw for 617 yards, 8/1 TD/INT in Week 4-5 against the Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders.
He balled out last year vs. the Lions as well. Fields threw for 167 yards with 2 passing TDs and ran for 147 yards with 2 rushing TDs against Detroit in Week 10 of 2022. I'm tossing out the results of the second Bears-Lions meeting last season (a 41-10 Week 17 win for Detroit). Chicago was checked out by then.
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Furthermore, the Lions are 26th in ESPN's pass rush win rate and Chicago is 6th in pass blocking win rate. Meaning, Fields will have time to throw. And Bears TE Cole Kmet and WR D.J. Moore can make plays vs. Detroit's secondary.
Bears WR DJ Moore high-fives TE Cole Kmet vs. the Las Vegas Raiders at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
By trading the 1st pick of the 2023 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers for Moore and future draft picks, the Bears wanted to give Fields a legit No. 1 wideout. Moore checks that box. He's a slightly less impactful version of San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades Moore the 10th-best receiver in the NFL and Kmet 17th among qualifying tight ends. Moore and Kmet are as good of a TE-WR combo as Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie TE Sam LaPorta.
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Plus, Chicago isn't that bad. Since Week 4, the Bears are 4th in net total yards (+458). They are 5th in net early-down success rate, ahead of Detroit who ranks 16th. "Early-down success rate" is a predictive metric because the whole playbook is available.
Lions QB Jared Goff passes the ball vs. the Chicago Bears at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Both teams like to establish the run. According to Nfeloapp.com, the Lions are 5th in rushing rate and the Bears are 6th. Well, Chicago's defense is 1st in yards per rush allowed (3.2). That's a major reason why the Bears excel on early downs.
Also, Chicago should have success running the ball in Week 11. The Bears are 4th in run blocking win rate and the Lions are 30th in run stopping win rate. Fields is one of the best running QBs in the NFL. Chicago RB D'Onta Foreman is 8th at PFF among qualifying running backs.
Finally, if the Bears make Detroit one-dimensional, perhaps Lions QB Jared Goff gets reckless with the ball. Goff is having a great season but he is not above a "bad game". Neither are the Lions. Their curse is waiting to reveal its ugly face. Don't take my word for it. Just ask people from Detroit.