Barkley Will Go Nuts Once Again

Commanders vs. Eagles, 3:00 ET

I mentioned last week that I was going to focus on player props a bit more as we wind down the season. My goal is with just three games remaining for the NFL season, I'll have a player prop for both Conference Championship games. I'll also have a play on both of the games as well, so don't worry if you just want to be a side or total, that will be here for you on Sunday. The first prop comes in the game between the Commanders and the Eagles, the first of the two championship games.

It should probably come as no surprise that the prop for this game will revolve around Saquon Barkley. Let's talk a bit about his season. Barkley entered free agency and it didn't feel like there was a huge demand for his services. I can't recall correctly how many offers he had, and that's usually a bit speculated anyway. The past few years, the Eagles basically had a running back by committee and allowed Jalen Hurts to pick up the short yardage first downs. Now they have a true bell-cow back. In his first season, Barkley racked up 2,005 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. There were five games this season that he didn't have over 100 rushing yards. He also had five games where he ran for over 150 yards. He is not really involved in the passing game, but he is at least an option. Actually his first touchdown this season was a receiving touchdown. 

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 29: Saquon Barkley #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on December 29, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

So far in the playoffs, Barkely has racked up 324 yards on 51 attempts. In the first game against Green Bay, he had 119 rushing yards on 25 carries. He didn't break away for many big runs and his biggest carry was just 17 yards. In the last game, against the Rams, he was an absolute monster. He carried the ball 26 times for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught all four of his targets for 27 yards. He had two catches on two targets against Green Bay, but that only went for four yards. 

A lot of times when considering someone's rushing yards you want to take out the breakaway runs, but Barkley has consistently been getting big runs this season. If you take out his two long touchdown runs against the Rams, he had just 65 yards on 24 carries. It isn't really fair with him to remove those though. He has played in a total of 18 games this year and has run for a 30+ yard run in eight of those games. He has run for a 20+ yard run in 12 of the games. 

The Rams are a bad rushing defense, but the Commanders are worse. The Commanders allowed 137.5 yards to opposing running backs during the regular season. They did a decent job of stopping Bucky Irving in their game against the Buccaneers, but still allowed 77 yards on 17 carries. They allowed 194 yards to Lions running backs on 22 carries. That includes three touchdowns and a 61-yard run to Jameson Williams. Jahmyr Gibbs also had a 33 yard run. Barkley faced Washington twice this season and had two rushing touchdowns in both games, and 146, and 150 yards in both. His long run in both games was 39 in the first and 68 in the second. 

I'm all in on Saquon in this game. I'm taking over 24.5 rushing attempts. I think the Eagles are going to win the game, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him featured often. I'm taking Barkley over 23.5 for his longest rush because he's proven repeatedly that he can do it. I'm also taking over on his 129.5 rushing yards for the game. These are all obviously correlated, but I like the plays regardless. The final play I'll take on him is to score 2+ touchdowns at +255. I am actually playing this at the lowest amount because I don't think it is great value, but I expect it to happen. 

 For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024