Bank On Jaguars' Annual Home Whooping Of Colts In NFL Week 6
I didn't realize until I dug deeper into this Week 6 matchup. But, apparently, the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) have won and covered seven consecutive "true" home games vs. the Indianapolis Colts (3-2). Technically, the Jaguars were the "home team" in 2016 when they beat the Colts 30-27 in London.
That's an unprecedented amount of success for a divisional rivalry. Without looking, the only comp to this would be the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots. Either way, the bottom line is the Colts don't win in Jacksonville.
More importantly, Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson will miss this game Sunday. Richardson will be out the next few weeks after injuring his shoulder in Indy's 23-16 Week 5 win against the Tennessee Titans.
Colts team personnel tend to QB Anthony Richardson after getting hurt vs. the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Robert Scheer/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Indianapolis backup, and former Jaguar, QB Gardner Minshew III takes over the play-calling duties in Week 6. Minshew is one of the better backup QBs in the league and a media favorite.
The Colts are 3-0 this season in games Minshew has appeared in. Minshew won his only start this year, 22-19 in overtime, in Week 3 at the Baltimore Ravens. He's completing 68.7% of his passes with a 2/0 TD/INT rate on 83 attempts.
That said, the 5-year veteran is a backup on his 3rd team for a reason. That reason is Minshew isn't good. In fact, Minshew is part of the reason Jacksonville has Trevor Lawrence, an elite QB.
Colts at Jaguars Week 6
Betting odds for the Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 6 as of Friday, Oct. 12.
Let's go back to 2020, the year prior to the Jaguars drafting Lawrence. Minshew was their Week 1 starter and Jacksonville went 1-7 with Minshew under center before benching him.
The Jaguars ended that year 1-15 to secure the 1st pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and selected Lawrence. What was Jacksonville's only win in 2020? That's right, you guessed it: Week 1 vs. the Colts at home.
Because of Lawrence, the Jaguars have an edge at QB. And he is playing better than people are giving him credit for. Through Week 5, Lawrence has career highs in completion and success rates.
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The problem with Jacksonville's offense isn't the quarterback. It's how poorly the QB's skill position players are performing. The Jaguars are tied for the 3rd-most drops in the league and they are 22nd in yards per rush (3.9).
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence drops back to pass vs. the Buffalo Bills in an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
However, Lawrence's teammates played better last week in a 25-20 win against the Buffalo Bills in London. Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. ran for 136 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries and WR Calvin Ridley had 7 catches for 122 yards.
Also, Jacksonville out-classed Indy 31-21 in Week 1 even though the Colts almost backdoor-covered that game. The Jaguars had more time of possession (33:37-26:23) and yards per play (5.0-4.1) and won by 10 despite losing the turnover battle 3-2.
Finally, Indianapolis likes to establish the run and averages the 8th-most rushing attempts per game. But, Jacksonville's defense is 4th in both rushing EPA/play and success rate. If the Jaguars take away the Colts' ground game, I'll take my chances with Minshew beating. We've already seen him fail at that.