Bank On Kelce Once Again Dominating In Playoffs

Bills vs. Chiefs, 6:30 ET

I grew up with a brother, and when I was becoming a parent, my mom told me something that I never really thought about until she pointed it out. She mentioned that everything she tried to do for us was try to provide equally for both. If he got an opportunity to do something, I was afforded the same opportunity or something comparable. For example, my dad took my brother to a concert and got really good tickets. I had no interest so he took me to see the Colts play because I loved Peyton Manning. I wrote a player prop for the NFC, so now I feel obligated to do one for the AFC as the Bills take on the Chiefs. 

Obligation is a bit of an overstatement. I'm happy to write this because I think it is a winner. We are going to take a look at Mr. Reliable, Mr. Swift, Mr. Tight End, Travis Kelce. Let's start with examining his season: This wasn't the most impressive year for Kelce. For the season, he had 97 receptions and 823 yards and three touchdowns. None of those were league leaders, but the receptions was 12th best in the league. It was the fewest yards and touchdowns that he has had in his career, but I think it was somewhat intentional. Look, I get it that he had 97 catches, but I don't think they were trying to use him quite as frequently this season because they want to unleash him now. 

Supporting my theory is that Kelce's best game came in his most recent one, the playoff victory over the Texans. In that game, he hauled in seven of his eight targets, racked up 117 yards, and grabbed a touchdown pass. His long reception was 49 yards, and if you take that off his total he is still left with 67 yards on six catches. He tends to step up his game in the playoffs as well. Consider last year that he had 93 catches for 984 yards in the regular season, then 32 catches for 355 yards in the playoffs, getting at least 71 yards in each of the games. He faced the Bills last playoffs as well and got 75 yards on five catches and had two touchdowns. 

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 27: Patrick Mahomes #15, Travis Kelce #87, and Joe Thuney #62 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrate after Kelce's receiving touchdown in the second quarter of a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on October 27, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

If there is any reason to not trust Kelce in this game it is because he was dominated in the first matchup this season. The only true game the Chiefs lost this year was against the Bills. In that game, Kelce had just two receptions on four targets for eight yards. It was certainly a credit to the Bills defense, but the were a bottom-10 defense against the pass. Some of that was because teams had to throw against them. The Bills only allowed 817 passing yards to opposing tight ends this season, but that put them at 13th-best in the league. 

Do you really think the Chiefs would go down without passing the ball to Travis Kelce? He only had four targets in the first game. Again, kudos to the Bills, but the Chiefs play chess while other teams play checkers. Why waste the best Kelce plays for a meaningless game when you know you're potentially facing them in the playoffs. His three lowest target games this season? Ravens, Bengals, and Bills, all looked at as potential top teams in the AFC and likely playoff opponents. Take Kelce over 69.5 yards in this one and see him take his last performance against the Bills and… ahem… Shake It Off. 

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