Bangin' Birdies: American Express 2024 Best Bets, 1-And-Done Pick
The "West Coast Swing" of the PGA Tour tees off this week with The American Express 2024 in Palm Springs, California. This is the 3rd event of the season and the 3rd different format. The AmEx is a Pro-Am with a three-course rotation and a 54-hole cut.
These courses include the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. Every golfer plays a round at each of the courses and the final round is at the Pete Dye track Sunday. All of these courses are Par 72s that measure between 7,000-7,200 yards.
Unfortunately, the previous two American Express winners aren't in the field (Jon Rahm and Hudson Swafford) since both defected to the LIV Tour. Since the American Express is a Pro-Am, the pros will crush these courses. The average winning score of the past five AmEx's is 25-under par.
Last week's Sony Open wasn't as big of a bloodbath as the Sentry 2024 but it wasn't profitable either. i Officially, I lost 1.21 units (u) at Waialae Country Club last week. Entering the American Express, my PGA Tour 2024 balance is -6.54u through the 1st two events.
GOLF GODS SMILE UPON GRAYSON MURRAY WHILE SPITING RORY MCILROY, TOMMY FLEETWOOD STILL ISN’T ELITE, AND A 7-MONTH DELAYED MERGER MEETING
Heads up: I'll be building my models with the tools from BetTheNumberGolf.com courtesy of my friends from Tour Junkies. Unless otherwise noted, all the stats used will be from that website.
My plan is to profit 20 units (u) for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10 or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
American Express 2024 'Horses for the Course'
Joohyung 'Tom' Kim
Fellow South Korean, Sungjae Im, was going to be my 1st horse for the course at the AmEx. Im has finished from T10 and T18 in all five of his AmEx starts. Plus, Im set a PGA Tour record for birdies at the Sentry 2024 earlier this month.
However, Tom ranks higher in my model and has a better payout. Last year, I bet Kim to win, top-five and top-10 and he finished T6 so I broke even. I’m projecting a breakout year for Tom this season and the AmEx is a perfect setup for him.
Kim is one of the most accurate drivers in golf and is precise with the irons. Joohyung is a three-time winner on Tour already and all three wins have come at “birdie fests”.
The 21-year-old is the reigning back-to-back Shriners Children’s Open champion in Las Vegas, aka “desert-style” golf, which has a similar layout as the AmEx.
Over his last 24 rounds, Kim is hitting greens in regulation at a 6.3% rate better than the Tour average. His birdie conversion rate is 5.4% better than the Tour average over that span as well.
Tom had an absolute garbage-putting week at the Sentry. That said, he was +1.6 Strokes Gained (SG): Putting last year at the AmEx. Kim is 26th in this field for SG: Putting on Poa/overseed greens over the last 24 rounds
1st thoroughbred for the AmEx: Tom Kim
J.T. Poston
The Postman fought to make the cut last weekend at the Sony Open and then went ballistic in the final round. Poston’s 61 Sunday was the best round any golfer shot in the Sony Open.
His 15-under was two strokes behind the three golfers that made the playoff and he backdoored a solo 6th-place finish. Poston tore up Waialae Country Club Sunday because the winds calmed down.
Palm Springs in January has possibly the calmest weather in the world. The 3-course rota plays zero defense and Poston should tear up La Quinta again this year. Last season, J.T. shot a 23-under at the AmEx to finish T6. He was +2.3 SG: APP and +2.5 SG: Putting in the 2023 AmEx.
J.T. Poston waves on the 18th green during the final round of The American Express 2023 in La Quinta, California. (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Also, Poston ranks 6th on my model but has the 8th-best odds to win this tournament. Over the last 52 rounds, J.T. is 6th among full-time PGA Tour members in this field for Birdie-or-Better (BoB) rate.
The AmEx is a putting contest and Poston is one of the best putters on Tour. He’s the 2nd-best putter on Poa/overseed greens over the last 24 rounds among current golfers on Tour.
More importantly, The Postman has “true win equity”. He’s a two-time winner on Tour — 2022 John Deere Classic and 2019 Wyndham Championship — with both being “birdie fests”.
2nd thoroughbred for the AmEx: J.T. Poston
Taylor Montgomery
The American Express Open is a glorified pitch-and-putt contest. Well, Montgomery can roll the rock with the best of them and he is red-hot with his irons. Over the last 16 rounds, Montgomery leads the field in SG: Approach (APP). He was +7.1 SG: APP at the Sony Open last week.
Montgomery is the 6th in SG: Putting on Poa/overseed greens over the last 24 rounds. At the 2023 AmEx, Montgomery shot 24-under to finish solo 5th despite being -0.3 SG: APP per round.
Taylor Montgomery hits a putt during the 3rd round of The American Express 2023 at PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course in California. (Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
Taylor did this because he was +3.0 SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) and +3.1 SG: Putting at the AmEx last season. He is the only top-five finisher at the AmEx to lose strokes with his irons since 2019.
Lastly, since the AmEx is a “birdie fest”, I’m looking for golfers to rack up birdies. Over his last 40 rounds, Montgomery’s birdie conversion rate is 6.6% better than the PGA Tour average. He is 11th in this field in BoB rate and 21st in BoB rate when “going for the green” over the last 52 rounds.
3rd thoroughbred for the AmEx: Taylor Montgomery
Akshay Bhatia
Despite being a captain of "Team No-Putt," Bhatia is such a good ball-striker he can post low scores. Bhatia is 3rd in BoB rate among current PGA Tour golfers over the last 52 rounds. Since scoring ball-striking stats are the most predictive, Bhatia ranks 5th on my model.
Furthermore, Bhatia ranks in the top-20 of this field for SG: T2G, driving accuracy, and Par 5 scoring. The "Par 5 scoring" is particularly important because the American Express is a "birdie fest" and Par 5s are BoB opportunities.
Akshay Bhatia hits an approach shot during the final round of the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Bhatia is only 22 years old but started his professional golf career at age 17. He missed the cut at his 1st two American Express starts in 2020-21. So Bhatia has experience in this event albeit without any success.
Regardless, Bhatia ranks too high on my model to stay away from him at the AmEx. BetMGM is dealing a 66-to-1 on Bhatia when he should be somewhere in the +4500 to +5000 range.
4th thoroughbred for the AmEx: Akshay Bhatia
American Express 'One-And-Done' Pick: Xander Schauffele
The 2024 Mayo Cup is the one-and-done league I entered in that began at last week's Sony Open. I used Poston who netted me $300,875, putting me in a tie for 723rd out of 4,400 entries. First place brings home $80,000.
This week I'm using Xander Schauffele, which is more of a sign of disrespect than anything. Since Xander is 5th in the Official World Golf Rankings, a lot of people are going to save him for the bigger events.
Xander Schauffele lines up a putt during the 1st round of The American Express at PGA West La Quinta Country Club in La Quinta, California. (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
While Schauffele ends up placing in the top-20 at most of the majors, he's almost never in contention on the final round. Plus, Schauffele always lets me down when I bet him. And, as OutKick golf writer Mark Harris puts it, "Xander doesn't have that dog in him".
But, the American Express has a tougher field than usual and Schauffele tied for 3rd here last season. Xander ranks 3rd in my 52-round model among current PGA Tour members. He is top-10 in this field for SG: APP, SG: T2G, BoB, and total SG at comp courses.