Wrong Team Favored: How To Bet Baltimore Ravens At Cincinnati Bengals In NFL Week 5
It's time to sell high on the Baltimore Ravens (2-2) when they visit AFC North co-tenant Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) in NFL Week 5. As of Thursday, the Ravens are -2.5 favorites across the board, down from the -3 opener. They are road favorites over the Bengals with Joe Burrow starting for the first time since Cincy took Burrow first in the 2020 NFL Draft.
"How did this happen?" you ask.
First, Baltimore got off the schneid by beating the Dallas Cowboys 28-25 in Week 3. Then, the Ravens hammered the Buffalo Bills 35-10 on Sunday Night Football last week. Now, they are the highest power-rated team in the market, according to NFL data scientist Sam Hoppen. Money is pouring in on Baltimore as a result.
Conversely, the Bengals rank ninth in the power ratings after getting their first win Sunday, beating the lowly Carolina Panthers 34-24. But, Cincinnati has two "ugly" losses already: 16-10 to the New England Patriots in Week 1 and 38-33 to the Washington Commanders two weeks ago.
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However, the Bengals have been notoriously slow starters since drafting Burrow, and that loss to the Commanders isn't that bad based on how good Washington's offense looks with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Also, Burrow is playing at an MVP level, Cincy's offense is at full strength, and teams can throw on Baltimore's defense.
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow drops back to pass against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. (Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)
Burrow is third in adjusted EPA, per NFL data scientist Kevin Cole, fifth in Pro Football Focus's "turnover-worthy" play rate, and sixth in QBR. Bengals WR Tee Higgins is healthy after missing the first two games of the season, and WR Ja'Marr Chase isn't grumpy anymore after a public contract dispute with the team this offseason.
Furthermore, the Ravens are dead-last in explosive pass-play rate allowed, per Hoppen. They got torched by Raiders QB Gardner Minshew in a 26-23 loss to Las Vegas in Week 2. Minshew completed 30-of-38 throws for 276 passing yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. And we know Cincinnati's aerial attack is more lethal than the Raiders'.
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Plus, Burrow lit up Baltimore's defense in 2021 when the Bengals made the Super Bowl. The Bengals scored 41 points twice vs. the Ravens that year, and Burrow had 941 total passing yards with 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception in those meetings. Granted, that was three years ago but, due to coaches departing, this is the worst Baltimore's defense has been since 2021.
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow bends over in pain after hurting his wrist vs. the Baltimore Ravens last season. (Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)
I'm "running it back" with the same logic in this game as I did with the Bills vs. Ravens last week, fading a team after an impressive win in primetime. Buffalo crushed the Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10 on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Like Baltimore here, I knew the Bills would come back down to earth the following week.
Burrow and the Bengals are 18-8 vs. the spread as an underdog. They should've, could've upset the Kansas City Chiefs as +6.5 road underdogs in a 26-25 Week 2 loss. Finally, this is a revenge game for Burrow, who suffered a season-ending injury against the Ravens last year.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Ravens 27
- For what it's worth, this is my "best bet" on the NFL Week 5 slate and a 2-unit play for me at Cincinnati +2.5, down to a pick 'em.
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