Best Bet For 2025 NFL Divisional Round Main Event: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

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The NFL saved its best for last in the divisional round. Regardless of how they finish, the top two in 2024-25 NFL MVP voting duke it out Sunday when the Baltimore Ravens play the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. Signs point to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson winning this third MVP. But, Bills QB Josh Allen has meant more to his team this season than any quarterback. 

After allowing an opening drive TD, Buffalo scored 31 unanswered points in a 31-7 win over the Denver Broncos last weekend. Baltimore breezed past the long-time rival Pittsburgh Steelers 28-14 in the wild-card round. Baltimore blasted Buffalo 35-10 at home in Week 4. 

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The Ravens out-gained the Bills 7.9-4.1 in yards per play, and Baltimore converted 10 more first downs (22-12) and all four red zone trips. Ravens RB Derrick Henry was the best player in that game, running for 199 yards on 24 carries with 1 TD. Allen had 201 total yards (180 passing and 21 rushing) with no TDs. 

Yet, the Bills were missing four impact defensive players in Week 4 who play Sunday, such as LBs Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, pass rusher Von Miller, and No. 1 CB Taron Johnson. This will help Buffalo defensive-minded head coach Sean McDermott scheme for a Baltimore offense missing No. 1 WR Zay Flowers. 

Ravens at Bills Odds (DraftKings) 

  • Moneyline: Baltimore (-118) | Buffalo (-102)
  • Spread: Ravens -1.5 (-102) | Bills +1.5 (-118)
  • Total — 51.5 — Over (-108) | Under (-112)

Between the addition of Johnson for the Bills and the subtraction of Flowers for the Ravens, Buffalo can pack the box without fear of Lamar airing it out. Sure, Baltimore's offensive and defensive lines are more physical than the Bills. However, Buffalo is sixth in pass-rush win rate and fourth in run-stop win rate, per ESPN, and can sell out to stop the run. 

Also, the Bills have been more consistent this season. Their four regular-season losses were on the road and one was without their starters in Week 18. Otherwise, Buffalo lost in Baltimore in Week 4, at the Houston Texans the week after (23-20), and at the Los Angeles Rams (44-42) in Week 14. All three won their divisions and a game this postseason. 

The Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens Sunday at Highmark Stadium in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round. (Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)

The Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens Sunday  at Highmark Stadium in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round. (Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)

The Ravens, on the other hand, lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 26-23 in Week 2, at the Cleveland Browns 29-24 in Week 8, and the Steelers 18-16 in Week 11. Las Vegas and Cleveland finished last in their respective divisions, and Pittsburgh was the worst team to make the playoffs. 

Even though Baltimore is the more physical team, the extreme winter weather conditions favor Buffalo because both teams will have trouble passing the ball. In that case, I'll take the better passer (Allen), especially since both quarterbacks are terrific runners. Ultimately, the better quarterback will win this game, which is Allen, despite the final NFL MVP vote. 

Prediction: Bills 24, Ravens 20

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