After Ravens Were Gutted This Offseason, Lamar Jackson And John Harbaugh Aren't Enough To Save 2024 Season
NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. After discussing the AFC and NFC South, we'll head north and preview the defending AFC North champion Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore had one of the best regular seasons in NFL history last year. That's not hyperbole. FTN's Aaron Schatz, formerly from Football Outsiders, said the 2023 Ravens had the fifth-best opponent-adjusted efficiency ("DVOA") dating back to 1979. Two of their four losses were flukey and Baltimore rested its starters in a Week 18 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson won his second NFL MVP and his team had the three most impressive wins in 2023. They embarrassed the NFC North champion Detroit Lions 38-6 in Week 7, beat the NFC-winning San Francisco 49ers 33-19 in the Bay Area Christmas Day 2023, and boat-raced the Miami Dolphins 56-19 New Year's Eve.
Despite finishing 13-4 and being the 1-seed in the AFC, Baltimore fell short of its goal, losing the AFC title game at home to the Kansas City Chiefs. But, with great success in the NFL comes massive roster and coaching turnover. So, has the Super Bowl window closed for coach John Harbaugh and Co., or will 2024 be Baltimore's year?
Baltimore Ravens 2024 Odds
Courtesy of FanDuel at 2:30 p.m. ET Monday, August 5.
- Super Bowl: +1000
- Conference: +550
- Division: +145
- Playoffs: Yes (-250) | NO (+194)
- 10.5 Wins: Over (-122) | Under (+100)
According to FTN’s 2024 Football Almanac, Baltimore’s offensive line lost the most snaps of any team this offseason (3,083). Former Ravens guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson, and RT Morgan Moses are gone. Injury-riddled Baltimore LT Ronnie Stanley has played in only 31 games over the last four years and 2023 was the worst season of his career.
Also, the Ravens saw three defensive starters leave in free agency, including Pro Bowl LB Patrick Queen and their leading sack artist from 2024, pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Baltimore will rely on younger players to develop in their new roles. RB Derrick Henry is the only notable addition the Ravens made to their roster this offseason. They had the fourth-lowest spending in free agency, per Spotrac.
Baltimore Ravens DB Kyle Hamilton celebrates with LB Roquan Smith scoring a TD vs. the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Ravens lost three defensive coaches, such as defensive coordinator (DC) Mike Macdonald (Seattle Seahawks' new head coach), defensive line coach Anthony Weaver (Miami Dolphins' new DC), and defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson (Tennessee Titans’ new DC). Since all of them were promoted, it stands to reason they are talented coaches.
With all due respect to Lamar, who I love, Baltimore's defense was the best unit in football last season. Granted, the Ravens still have Pro Bowlers on their defense: LB Roquan Smith, safety Kyle Hamilton, and DT Justin Madubuike. Yet, they play in the toughest division of football and at least two of the three AFC North teams will be better this season.
Baltimore Ravens 2024 Projection: 8-9 for third in the AFC North
Firstly, with Lamar and Harbaugh, the Ravens can win 10+ games every season. Jackson has never had a losing year and has a career 58-19 regular-season record. Harbaugh made his bones as a special teams coordinator and Baltimore's special teams is a perennially top-10 unit. So, if healthy, Lamar will be nasty next year, as will the Ravens' special teams.
However, teams whose coaching staffs get poached typically regress year over year. Losing both coordinators from their 2022 NFC-winning staff is the main reason for the Philadelphia Eagles' subpar 2023. With that in mind, Macdonald's departure could be the biggest loss for any team this offseason.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson poses with the 2023 NFL MVP trophy. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Jackson isn't one of my top-five quarterbacks entering 2024. I rank Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, and Los Angeles Rams QB Matt Stafford ahead of him. Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud is coming and Chicago Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams will be the truth.
‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Baltimore Ravens on unlimited bankroll: To Miss The Playoffs (+194) at FanDuel
Between their roster and coaching staff turnover, tough schedule, a stacked AFC, and Lamar's injury history, there are too many ways for the Ravens to underperform expectations. Losing three starting offensive linemen and three defensive coaches directly impacts Baltimore's two biggest strengths: Rushing and defense.
Moreover, Jackson's passing ability to carry the Ravens to a Super Bowl. If everything falls right, Lamar can win a title. Unfortunately, that was last year and he didn't. Maybe Baltimore will be a Super Bowl-caliber team again in a couple of seasons, but not next year.
For the record, this is one of those recommendations instead of an "in-pocket" bet. FanDuel is offering a +820 payout for Ravens Under 6.5 alternate wins. However, that's an absolute dart because Baltimore has won fewer than eight games once in Harbaugh's 16 seasons with the Ravens (5-11 in 2015).
Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account
- Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (+2700)
- Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South (+1100)
- Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to throw for 4,000+ yards (+165)
- Houston Texans WR Nico Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+2900)
- 3-team division-winning parlay: Panthers, Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns (+31400)
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