Backing NL Powerhouses In MLB Wednesday's 'Sucker' Parlay

Winning Tuesday's MLB parlay may end up being costly because it gives me confidence to run it back. Again, parlays are for dorks and you'll rarely hear a professional bettor say "Oooo, check out this parlay."

However, these goofy parlays have been profitable for me in the MLB in recent seasons. My worst year betting baseball (2022) occurred when I ditched these type of wagers. Well, in the words of the great John Wick ...

Cincinnati Reds (4-6) at Atlanta Braves (8-4), 7:20 p.m. ET

Atlanta (-275 moneyline) goes for the 3-game sweep and out-scored Cincinnati (+230 ML) 12-10 in the 1st two games, winning each by 1 run.

The Braves give a NL Cy Young-favorite, RHP Spencer Strider (1-0, 2.45 ERA, the start Wednesday. The Reds combat the hard-throwing Strider with an even bigger power pitcher in RHP Hunter Greene (0-0, 5.63 ERA).

Greene got a W in his only career start vs. the Braves in April 2022. He threw 5 IP, surrendering 3 ERs on 4 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 7 K. Atlanta's starter that day was Ian Anderson who gave up 5 ER and had a terrible 2022.

Strider was 2nd in the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year race and faced the Reds once last year. He struck out more than half his batters faced (11 K in 21 Reds' plate appearances). Strider went 6 IP, allowing just 1 ER on 1 H and 1 BB.

Spencer Strider pitches vs. the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. (Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

I said this last year several times but I'm backing Strider until the rest of MLB proves it can hit him. Strider is in the 94th-percentile of K%, 88th-percentile of whiff rate, and 96th-percentile of fastball velocity, per Statcast.

To be fair, I don't think the the Reds will be the "dumpster-fire" most MLB handicappers predicted them to be during spring training. That said, there is a WIDE gap between the Reds and the Braves. That gap is defined by the ML prices.

At least, there is line movement toward Atlanta. According to Pregame.com, the Braves opened as -245 ML favorites in the consensus market. Atlanta's ML price is massive, which is why I'm parlaying it with the following big favorite.

Los Angeles Dodgers (6-6) at San Francisco Giants (5-6), 9:45 p.m. ET

This is the rubber-match of the "Freeway Series". LAD responded to a 5-0 shutout loss Monday by raking San Francisco 9-1 Tuesday to tie the set.

The Dodgers give future Hall of Famer, LHP Clayton Kershaw (1-1, 3.75 ERA) the nod and the Giants have RHP Alex Cobb (0-1, 2.43 ERA) starting Wednesday.

We don't have to get into Kershaw's resume since I summed it up with "future Hall of Famer". Kershaw surprisingly struggled with San Francisco last season (0-1 with 9 ER allowed in 18 1/3 IP).

However, the Giants thus far in 2023 haven't been able to hit left-handed pitching. San Francisco's lineup ranks 29th in wRC+ (48), wOBA (.245) and ISO (.080) and dead-last in BB/K rate (0.16), per FanGraphs.

Dodgers' Max Muncy is congratulated by Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman after Muncy hit a 3-run HR vs. the Giants in the at Oracle Park in San Francisco. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Conversely, LAD's lineup is 5th in wRC+ (125) vs. right-handed pitching, 3rd in wOBA (.367), 2nd in ISO (.252), 6th in BB/K rate (0.53), and 4th in hard-hit rate (38.5%).

Furthermore, the Dodgers has elite relief pitching and the Giants do not. LAD's bullpen ranks 7th in FIP and 12th in HR/9 rate. While San Francisco's bullpen is 22nd in both FIP and HR/9 rate.

MLB 'Sucker' Parlay: Braves & Dodgers MLs (+124) at DraftKings

Odds for an MLB 2-team parlay as of Wednesday, April 12th at 11 a.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.