Backing 2 Road 'Dogs In MLB Friday: Guardians, Giants
I'm not going to BS y'all; my MLB betting performance has been butt cheeks lately. It sucks. I'm embarrassed. If you want to fade me, I get it. But, if you think I'm not betting MLB this summer, you're tripping.
The idea of just previewing the NFL and college football season is boring. I got all summer to look at the SEC and NFC East and can back-burner baseball later on. Let's the right the ship by adding a couple of units (u) with some ...
MLB Friday Fun
Cleveland Guardians (32-36) at Arizona Diamondbacks (41-28)
Betting odds for the Guardians at the Diamondbacks in MLB Friday, June 16th from DraftKings.
I backed Guardians RHP Triston McKenzie (0-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. the Astros and it bit in the buttocks. Cleveland lost to Houston 6-4 Saturday and McKenzie allowed 5 ER over 5 IP with 1 HR and a 5/3 K/BB rate.
Did I learn my lesson? Of course not. McKenzie is a stud and I sprinkled on him to win the 2023 AL Cy Young preseason. McKenzie faces D'Backs RHP Zac Gallen (7-2, 3.09 ERA) is the current favorite at DraftKings for 2023 NL Cy Young at +200.
Arizona RHP Zac Gallen pitches against the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field in Phoenix. (Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
Those odds aren't misleading. Gallen ranks 25th among active MLB starters for Stuff+, according to FanGraphs, and his fastball-changeup combination is filthy. Gallen's 2.40 FIP ("fielding independent pitching") is lower than his ERA.
Over the last seven days, Cleveland's and Arizona's lineup is neck-and-neck in most advanced hitting stats. However, the D'Backs have the much more productive lineup this season.
The Guardians can steal this game in the late innings. Their bullpen's 2.98 ERA is the second-best in MLB and Arizona's bullpen has a 4.12 ERA, which ranks 17th.
Guardians righty Triston McKenzie throws a pitch during the first inning vs. the Houston Astros at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
With that in mind, I believe I'm getting a great price with the Guardians (+120). Especially when you consider Cleveland is 8-3 as road underdogs in McKenzie's career. The Guardians have a +60.0% return on investment in those spots.
BET 1u on Guardians (+120) at DraftKings
San Francisco Giants (36-32) at Los Angeles Dodgers (39-30)
Betting odds for the Giants vs. the Dodgers in MLB Friday, June 16 from DraftKings.
Don't look now but the Giants are pulling their "every other year" nonsense and are good again. They have won seven of their last 10 games and San Francisco is four games above-.500 in June.
After a first-place, 107-win in 2021, the Giants were 81-81 in 2022. The drop-off was fairly obvious: San Francisco off-loaded All-Star pitcher Kevin Gausman and veteran Johnny Cueto after 2021.
The Giants will use RHP John Brebbia (2-0, 3.25 ERA) as an opener for their "bullpen day". The Dodgers call up prospect RHP Emmet Sheehan to The Show for his MLB debut Friday.
In his last seven "openers," Brebbia has allowed just 1 ER over 8 IP. Per Statcast, Brebbia is in the 80th percentile or higher in K%, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected ERA over expected wOBA.
Giants pitcher John Brebbia fires one in vs. the Chicago Cubs at Oracle Park in San Francisco. (Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Giants have an edge in relief pitching. San Francisco's bullpen is 8th in FIP and13th in WAR whereas LAD's bullpen is 23rd in FIP and 20th in WAR, according to FanGraphs.
These lineups are neck-and-neck in advanced hitting stats but the Giants are hotter at the plate recently. San Francisco's lineup out-ranks LAD's in WAR (1.6-0.7), wRC+ (126-94), and wOBA (.357-.309) over the last seven days.
Finally, we are seeing some "reverse line movement" in the betting market. The Dodgers opened as -150 (ish) favorites and are down -140 on the consensus market. This is despite nearly 60% of the action being on LAD, per Pregame.com.