'Back To The Well': Bet OVER In Celtics At Hawks Game 4

The Over (229) cashed for us when the 7-seed Atlanta Hawks (1-2) beat the 2-seed Boston Celtics (2-1) in Game 3 130-122 Friday. Game 4 is back in The A and we're going back to the OVER 231 Sunday.

First of all, let me acknowledge there are several quality pro-Under arguments. These include the zig-zag theory, the Over being a public play, the line movement heading South of the total, etc.

Hawks SF De'Andre Hunter and big Clint Capela fight for a rebound vs. Celtics big Al Horford in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. (Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images)

However, I feel like the Under in Celtics-Hawks Game 4 is a fake sharp play. All three games in this series have played out in a similar fashion. The home team has taken control early and won wire-to-wire.

One difference is the first two Celtics-Hawks games went Under the total and the latter went Over. The other difference is the series went to Atlanta for Games 3 and 4. But, I'll explain why that gets me to the window for OVER 231 in Game 4.

Celtics at Hawks Odds, Game 4 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting odds for the Celtics at Hawks Game 4 Sunday in the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference playoffs from DraftKings.

Celtics-Hawks is the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA postseason. Boston is fourth in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 2nd in effective field goal shooting (eFG%) in these playoffs. Atlanta had a 64.3% eFG% in Game 3 and shot 21-for-48 from behind the arc.

Not only did Trae Young have his best game of the series Friday but his teammates balled out too. Atlanta's bench shot 80% from 3-point land (8-of-10) and Dejounte Murray had a 25-6-5 stat line in Game 3.

One of the biggest differences between regular-season and playoff basketball is officiating. Generally-speaking, there are fewer ticky tack calls made in the postseason and, if anything, home-cooking.

Hawks PG Trae Young drives to the basket vs. the Celtics in the 2023 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. (Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images)

Three of the four refs in Celtics-Hawks Game 4 have officiated more OVERS than Unders this season. The assigned officiating crew has a combined 147-115 Over/Under (O/U), 56.1% to the OVER.

Trae's best offensive asset is his ability to manipulate refs. Granted, Atlanta didn't get to the line much in its Game 3 win. But, at home with this Over-friendly officiating crew, perhaps Trae gets more freebies.

This could be the rare occasion when the OVER is the sharp play. Per VSIN, more cash and bets at DraftKings are on the Under. Game 4 opened with a 232-point total and the first three totals in this series closed higher than they opened.

Finally, the Hawks play better in Atlanta because role players perform better at home. The Celtics on the other hand can get buckets anywhere. Especially against this poor Hawks defense on the road.

BET: OVER 231 in Game 4 at DraftKings, up to 232.5

Odds for the OVER in Celtics at the Hawks Game 4 from DraftKings as of 2 p.m. ET Sunday, April 23rd.