Back The Over In The Battle Of New York

Rangers vs. Islanders, 3:00 ET

After two straight wins in the NHL, I was thinking I might be on the start of a roll to balance out some of this red that's on my finance sheet from hockey handicapping this season. I was wrong as I dropped the game between the Kings and Bruins yesterday. I expected defense to shine in an early start between two of the better defending teams in the sport, but they combined to produce nine goals. The game went to overtime and the Kings won, but it wouldn't have mattered anyway as the under was toast quickly after three goals were scored in the first period. I suppose the only thing I can take from it is that I could go back to monitoring college hoops because the bet was lost quickly. Today, I'm looking to try and grab that unit back from the books and take on the New York vs. New York battle. 

The Rangers are the better of the New York teams. There really isn't much of a debate about this as the Rangers sit in first place within the Metropolitan Division and are 35-16-3 on the year. The Rangers are led by Artemi Panarin, who has 71 points for the team, with the next closest player being 20 points away. Still, as you'd imagine with their record, they aren't exactly slouches. They have five guys with 30 or more points, and four of them are already over the 40-point mark. Collectively, they are scoring 3.30 goals per game which is one of the better numbers in the league, but still leaves room for some opportunity. Where they really shine is their defense which is allowing just 2.76 goals per game and only 28.5 shots per game. I always think if your defense can do the work to keep opponents from taking shots against your goalie, you're better off that way than having an out-of-this-world goalie in the net. Luckily for the Rangers, they are on a bit of a heater right now as well, coming in with a six-game winning streak. I would assume they will put Igor Shesterkin in the net today. Shesterkin comes into this one with a 2.78 goals against average and a .902 save percentage. He is also coming off of a shutout in his last game. 

The Rangers and Islanders square off today. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Islanders are not quite as reliable as the Rangers, but they haven't been destroyed this season either. The Islanders are 22-18-13 on the season with the most alarming number coming at the end. Going to overtime and losing that many times has to be heartbreaking. In some ways it makes me think that you can at least count on them to keep it close, but in others, it ultimately is a loss so the team really is 22-31 on the year. Even if they split the overtime losses, they could be 28-25. I understand that isn't quite how hockey works, but I try to simplify things. Over their past five games, they've dropped three of them, with two of the losses coming either in overtime or during the shootout. One of the biggest concerns the Islanders have to address before this season officially slips past them is the defense. They are allowing 34.3 shots to opponents while taking only 30 per game. You're not going to win many games when your goalie is constantly peppered with shots and you're not controlling the puck or attacking often. 

In this one I think we get over the 5.5 total. I think the Islanders probably put up two goals and I'd guess the Rangers put up at least two. That leaves us at four, but with that as a baseline, I think there is a real possibility, in this game especially because it is on national television, that the offenses come to play a bit. I'll back the over in this one.

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