Back The Over In Astros Vs. Giants

Giants vs. Astros, 2:10 ET

It is always interesting watching baseball teams from year-to-year. What makes one good one year? Why are they bad the next year with largely the same roster? Is it that hitting and pitching really are contagious? Do slow starts hamper the entire season? I'm not sure I have the answer to why there is so much fluctuation, but I do have the play for the San Francisco Giants vs. the Houston Astros.

The Giants have been a very streaky team this season with winning and losing streaks of five or more games already. Something isn't consistent with them and it isn't just their hitting or pitching's fault. Sometimes it is neither, and sometimes it is both failing at the same time. Their hitting collectively on the year has been pretty respectable and they are getting the ball over the fence with regularity. If we are going to blame anything, or at least one more than the other, blame the pitching with their 4.85 ERA and .270 batting average against them. Today, Logan Webb takes the ball. He was looked at as if he would be the Ace of this club and he hasn't been consistent enough. In three starts, he has allowed at least four earned runs. In the other three starts two or fewer. Webb has only had 14 at-bats against him by Astros and allowed just two hits.

Mr. Consistency is Framber Valdez. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)

Last season, one of my main guys was Framber Valdez. Why? Well, it is a word I've discussed here already: consistency. Valdez was the most consistent pitcher in baseball last year and churned out quality start after quality start. He is doing it again with five straight in April, and probably could've gotten six straight to start the year if he was allowed to pitch one more inning against the White Sox. He is hittable, he's allowed six hits or more in four of his six starts, and he's allowed at least two earned runs in four of his six starts. However, he is doing a good job of limiting the damage as he still hasn't allowed more than three earned runs to an opponent all season.

I think this game will see runs allowed from both starters. I like the over 3.5 runs through five innings and will play it that way. I'm seeing reasonable juice on the over, but if it isn't something you want to pay, the over for the game (7.5) should hit too.

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