Back The Brew Crew Over Reds, Mets Vs. Dodgers In MLB Saturday

As we discussed Friday, my MLB 2023 season has been a dumpster-fire from a betting perspective. So hitting both bets Friday to start the 2nd-half of the season was clutch. My record is now 54-57 and the MLB bankroll is -6.75 units (u).

Now that I opened my mouth, I'm sure I'll lose both MLB bets Saturday. That's how my season has gone all year. One day it's feast and the next is famine. Hence I won't take any offense to fading my two bets in the ....

MLB Saturday Slate

Milwaukee Brewers (50-42) at Cincinnati Reds (50-42)

Brewers-Reds betting odds for MLB Saturday, July 15th from DraftKings.

There are a lot of reasons to back the Reds Saturday and there are a lot of bettors doing so. According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action in the consensus betting market is on Cincy as of 12:30 p.m. ET Saturday afternoon. 

The aforementioned “reasons” include Cincinnati’s starting pitcher having better numbers and the Reds being a younger and more exciting squad with a better record over the last 30 games.

Milwaukee is 16-14 straight up (SU) over the last 30 games while Cincinnati is 21-9 SU over that span. The Brewers are now tied with the Reds for 1st place in the NL Central.

Cincy's starter Saturday, rookie LHP Andrew Abbott, is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA this season. While Milwaukee counters with RHP Freddy Peralta who is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA.

Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta pitches vs. the Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)

Peralta has struggled on the road this season. He is 1-4 on the road with a 5.82 ERA (3.88 home ERA) and a 1.53 WHIP (1.14 home WHIP) in seven starts. The market already knows this though and the line is moving towards Milwaukee.

Cincinnati’s moneyline (ML) opened at -130, according to Pregame.com. The Reds’ ML is down to -125 at DraftKings and lower at other sportsbooks. 

WATCH: ELLY DE LA CRUZ STEALS SECOND, THIRD AND THEN HOME

Brewers-Reds played in a 3-game set entering the MLB All-Star break, which Milwaukee won 2-1, and Abbott started one of those games. The Brewers raked Abbott at home for 6 ER on 9 H and 2 HR over 4.1 IP in Milwaukee’s 7-3 win July 7th.

Reds LHP Andrew Abbott throws a pitch vs. the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (John Fisher/Getty Images)

Also, Peralta still has electric stuff and has pitched well against Cincy over the past few seasons. Peralta ranks 17th among qualified starters in FanGraphs’ “Stuff+”. He has a 30/6 K/BB rate in his last five starts vs. the Reds with just 1 HR allowed. 

Furthermore, the Brewers are 5-2 SU in Peralta’s seven career starts at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Brew Crew’s average odds are -138 vs. the Reds in those starts and Milwaukee has a +23.3% return on investment in those outings. 

Lastly, the Brewers have owned the Reds over the past few seasons. Milwaukee is 29-17 SU against Cincy since 2021 and 6-2 SU in 2023. 

MLB BET #1: 1u on the Brewers (+105) ML at DraftKings

The Brewers' odds vs. the Reds in MLB Saturday from DraftKings as of 1 p.m. ET.

Los Angeles Dodgers (52-38) at New York Mets (42-49)

Dodgers-Mets betting odds in MLB Saturday, July 15th from DraftKings.

The Dodgers shutdown the Mets in 6-0 series opening win Friday and NYM's lineup got just one hit. But, Dodgers LHP Julio Urias is lethal post-All-Star break and the Mets have struggled vs. lefties all year.

NYM's lineup is top-10 against right-handed pitching in wRC+ and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs. The Mets are 32-28 SU vs. righty starters. Whereas they are 10-21 against left-handed starters and NYM's lineup is 21st in wRC+.

That said, I like the Mets to even this series because I’m a Mets RHP Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.31 ERA) stan. I mentioned Senga in my NL East season preview where I stupidly gave out the Mets to win the division.

MAX SCHERZER AND JUSTIN VERLANDER ADDRESS TRADE DEADLINE SPECULATION

Senga and Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani pose during the MLB All-Star Game Media Availability at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Surprise, surprise, the Mets are going to fall short of preseason expectations. But, Senga is an All-Star as a rookie and his forkball catches hitters off-balance. Plus, Senga pitches better in Queens and has “reverse splits”.

Senga has a 2.64 ERA at home (3.97 road ERA) and 1.13 WHIP (1.43 road WHIP) with a better K/BB rate. His cutter is actually more effective than his forkball. This explains why Senga is tougher on lefties than righties. 

Opposing left-handed hitters have a .291 slugging percentage vs. Senga (righties = .377 slugging) and a .272 wOBA (righties = .305 wOBA) with four fewer HRs allowed against right-handed batters, per FanGraphs.

Obviously, Senga is well-rested with the All-Star break being the past weekend. Senga’s best pitching form for a rest split is 6+ days.

Mets RHP Kodai Senga pitches vs. the Brewers at Citi Field. (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

I cannot help but notice the line movement headed toward Queens in the betting market. The Mets were even-money (+100) on the opener and have been steamed up to a slight favorite (-120) as of Saturday afternoon.

Given how disappointing the Mets were in the 1st-half of the season and the Dodgers are 1st place in the NL West, this line movement is noteworthy. Maybe I'm overthinking it and the Mets will continue to Mets.

MLB BET #2: 1.2u on the Mets (-120) ML at DraftKings

The Mets' odds vs. the Dodgers in MLB Saturday from DraftKings as of 1 p.m. ET.