Back Steele To Dominate In Steel City

Cubs vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET 

Yesterday wasn't a pretty day for me. I lost another WNBA play (though I did hit the sprinkle - just barely) and I lost the MLB play that I gave out as well. Not only was it a loss but it was an ugly loss. I essentially was backing a guy I never back (Bailey Ober) against a guy that I back regularly (Max Fried). Ober allowed nine earned runs in two innings of work. I'm looking to bounce back here as the Cubs take on the Pirates. 

The Cubs are .500 and have climbed all the way to second in the NL Central. This effort is all too little too late considering they are still 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race. They still also have to get past the Mets and Giants who are ahead of them. The Cardinals are also just a half-game back of the Cubs. In other words, they will need to go on a massive tear to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. I've said these numbers mean very little, but ESPN lists the Cubs at just 3.2% to make the playoffs, and I would tend to think that might be a bit high. They still can close out the season on a high note by finishing above .500. Today the Cubs send out one of their better starters, Justin Steele to the hill. Steele is 4-5 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Both of those numbers are very strong, and the Cubs have to hope they can get another year or two of this type of performance from him as they try to field a true contender. Steele has been outstanding this month, allowing just four earned runs in 21.2 innings over four starts - he did leave a start early against the Blue Jays, but came back and threw seven innings against the Tigers. Steele faced the Pirates twice this season, during the worst stretch of his year as he was returning from the injured list. He allowed 10 earned runs over 9.2 innings, including five of his 11 homers this season. 

May 22, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones (37) pitches against the San Francisco Giants during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates are somewhat replicating what happened last season. The Pirates looked like they were fielding a contender for the first half of the year, and now they are falling fast. At the break this season, the team was 48-48. Since then, they've gone just 14-21. The biggest problem was a 10-game losing streak and losing 12 of 13 games during that stretch. They've had issues with their offense for the majority of the season, but they found ways to make it work. The pitching staff now has two front-of-the-rotation starters with Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller. However, both of them have struggled lately. Tonight, they send out Jared Jones to the mound. Jones has put together a very nice season with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 91 winnings. However, the team should temper expectations a bit as Jones is coming off of the injured list. He hasn't seen Major League action since July 3rd. The best work of Jones's season has come on the home mound. This season, Jones has a 2.17 ERA in Pittsburgh compared to 5.59 on the road. He has faced the Cubs twice this year and both outings were quality starts as he allowed two earned over six innings in his home start against them. 

This is game two of the series between the two clubs, and the first one saw two poor offensive teams put up a combined 26 runs. The Cubs won the game 18-8. Can they do this two games in a row? Probably not. I typically like to fade a team off of a big offensive output. I don't think the over is a lock for this game though with Steele and even Jones on the mound. I will back the Cubs to win this game though. They are playing better baseball and Steele is throwing too well to go away from him right now. 

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