Back Road Dog To Win With Defense

Jets vs. Maple Leafs, 7:00 ET

Let's get this out in the open: if you've been fading my hockey picks, you're making good money this season. Everyone goes through slumps, bad weeks, bad plays, bad months, whatever. I've had bad seasons of things before as well. But, there is a reason I do this for people... I'm good at sports betting. Sometimes I need to remind myself of that and keep grinding away. Tonight, I want to get my mojo back and grab a unit off the books as I look to get myself out of the hole in a game between the Jets and the Maple Leafs.

The Winnipeg Jets are putting themselves in a nice spot to get into the playoffs this season. They made it last year but were ousted by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Golden Knights. Right now they are sitting in first place of the Central Division. They are sitting at 30-11-4 and have won three of their past five games. They are currently on a road trip, but they lost their last game against the Bruins 4-1 and had to escape with an overtime victory over the Senators 2-1. Their defense has been one of the best in the league as they've held opponents to just 2.29 goals against per game this season. They are also scoring very effectively on 31 shots per game where they get 3.24 goals. What I find most interesting is that they aren't particularly dominant in Power Play situations. They are pretty average on their penalty kill situations, but they've only scored on 16% of their opportunities. That's a bit strange for a team that has been as strong as they are this season.

TORONTO, ON - DECEMBER 30: Mitch Marner #16 and Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs look on against the Carolina Hurricanes during the first period at the Scotiabank Arena on December 30, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

On the other side of the ice will be the Maple Leafs. They have had a respectable season to this point with a 23-14-8 record but haven't been overly reliable at home at just 10-9-2. They have been very strong offensively, getting off 33 shots per game. They've also also averaged 3.49 goals in the back of the net per game. The problem is their defense is allowing essentially the same amount of goals per game at 3.27. They are allowing almost 31 shots per game as well. They've been more dominant than the Jets during the Power Play opportunities, and about as effective during the penalty kill. They are returning home from a four-game road trip that saw them go 2-2. They are likely to put Ilya Samsonov in the net tonight. He's only played two games in January and gone just 1-1 in those contests. He has allowed four goals total in those two games.

The Jets are the better team, and even with the most recent loss, I think they can come out on top in this game as a small dog. This is closer to a value play than a confidence in the team winning. I like the defense that the Jets have and defense can often stop a powerful offense, which is what the Maple Leafs bring to the table. Watching a bit of line moves shows that the total went from 6.5 to 6 which would indicate a lower scoring game and that favors the Jets. I'll take them to win this one.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024