Back Lugo To Spoil Twins Starter's Debut

Royals vs. Twins, 7:40 ET

The AL Central has been one of the most interesting divisions in baseball this season. With four teams that are at least competitive and another that is historically bad, there is something to watch with each of them. The Guardians may have been in first place for the majority of the season, the White Sox are unbelievably terrible, and the Tigers are showing progress this year despite not having much of an offense. That leaves the two teams that square off tonight, the Royals and the Twins, both are in the Wild Card mix and it should be an interesting stretch run. 

I mentioned that the Royals would be in the Wild Card mix, but they shouldn't be fully kept out of the division race either. Coming into tonight's game, they sit in third place within the AL Central and are five games back of the Guardians. They sit in the third Wild Card spot, with a two game lead on the Red Sox and Mariners, so if the playoffs ended today, we would have three teams from the AL Central in the playoffs after having just one last year and no one else really close to making it. That is a nice turnaround from the division. Obviously both hitting and pitching have improved for the Royals, but last year, the Royals had a -183 run differential. This year, they are at +91. Again, that isn't just the offense improving - but that has been significant - it has been the pitching staff as well. Seth Lugo takes the pill tonight and he has led this rotation all year. Lugo is currently 13-6 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. His ERA is fourth in the league and his WHIP is 12th. Those are both strong numbers and give him reason to be considered in the Cy Young conversation. Lugo hasn't been quite as sharp in his return to action since the All-Star Break. In 19.2 innings, he has allowed 11 earned runs. That's around a quarter of the runs that he has allowed this season. In fairness to him, he also put together eight strong innings against the Tigers two starts ago. He has faced the Twins twice this season, and allowed a total of one earned run over 12 innings and allowed eight hits. He has been better on the road than at home as well. 

May 28, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton (25) slides into third against the Kansas City Royals in the fifth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota has been very good at home this season. The Twins have a record of 66-52, putting them 14 games above .500. They are 12 games above .500 at home this season, so outside of Minnesota they have been an average club. The Twins took the opener yesterday against the Royals after splitting a series against the Guardians. It really shouldn't be much of a surprise that the Twins are successful - they were the lone representative for the AL Central last season. Looking at their statistics, they matchup almost identically to the Royals. Kansas City is hitting .254, and the Twins are hitting .253. They both come into the game with 1,010 hits, and have scored about 570 runs. The Royals have a better pitching staff this season, but the hitting is surprisingly close. The Twins don't have an official starter listed, but the expectation is that it will be Zebby Matthews who will make his Major League debut. Matthews, highly ranked in the minors, went from High-A ball this season all the way to Triple-A and now the Majors. He was great this year in the minors, but did struggle at Triple-A with a 5.68 ERA in four starts. What has been good about Matthews is that he has struck out 114 hitters and walked only seven(!) in 97 innings. Great control makes a difference at every level.

The thing about this game specifically is that the Twins have a starter making a debut and that often means nerves or jitters. He wasn't dominating Triple-A for the call up, he was brought up because they need an arm. I've gotten a lot of money off of Lugo this season, and think this is another spot for the Royals to excel. Although Matthews has great control, I am worried that it might not be there for him under the bright lights and his first start. I'll take the Royals through five innings here. 

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