Back Louisville in Top-20 Matchup

Duke vs. Louisville, 3:30 ET

College Football is back for a full slate of games on Saturday. This concept isn't anything new, but I am intrigued about how people feel (comment below) about more games than ever being played during the week. I see more games happening on Tuesday, Wednesday, and even Thursday and Friday than I remember. We still get a jam-packed day of games, so maybe this makes it better. Today, I've decided to lock in on a game between Duke and Louisville, one of the ranked matchups.

Duke comes into this game as the 20th-ranked team in the nation. I have to say, I was a bit surprised by this. Not because they don't have the talent, but I just never really think of them as a football school, for obvious reasons. They've put together a decent enough season and are 5-2 coming into this game, but this will be a challenge, especially playing against Louisville on the road. Their two losses were against very talented opponents, Notre Dame and Florida State. Duke has done very well on the ground in most games, but I think Louisville has the defense to stop them. Louisville has a really strong offense, but can be mistake-prone at times. If Duke can apply pressure they may be able to get the Cardinals into situations that make them uncomfortable and slow the offense down. I think the path to victory is clear here: Duke needs to force turnovers, run the ball effectively against a tougher rush defense, and find opportune times for them to throw the ball downfield.

DURHAM, NC - SEPTEMBER 30: Riley Leonard (13) of the Duke Blue Devils runs the ball during a football game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina on Sep 30, 2023. (Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Louisville enters this game with just one loss on the season, a game they played against Pittsburgh. That game took place two weeks ago though, so Louisville has had plenty of time to prepare for this one. Sometimes it doesn't matter how long you get to prepare (Duke only had one week), but in this case, having the two weeks, and being at home, could provide a large edge for the Cardinals. Expect Louisville to stack the box against Duke in hopes of slowing down their running game. If they can do that, Duke is certain to lose the game. On the season, the Blue Devils are only averaging 173 passing yards per game. The Louisville defense should be able to combat that effectively enough, knowing that Duke wants to run first and will only pass if needed. I mentioned the turnovers - Jack Plummer has eight interceptions on the season - if Louisville can control that portion of the game, I expect them to win.

I get that both teams are solid in their respective way, and can see paths to victory for them, but Duke needs a lot more to go right in this game than Louisville does. I'm going to take the Cardinals in this one at -4.5. I think they probably win this game by a touchdown. A loss would be somewhat inexcusable here and a win for both could mean staying in position for the ACC Championship game, so there should be no lack of focus on either side. I just think there are too many edges for Louisville.

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