Back Boston To Break Down Dodgers Tonight

Red Sox vs. Dodgers, 7:00 ET

Baseball is back after the All-Star Break and so is Sunday Night Baseball. Last week, there was no baseball as the teams went into the All-Star Break and the MLB Draft started taking place. Personally, I didn't watch the draft aside from looking to see where Tommy White was drafted because I happen to know his family. I have wondered why there isn't as much popularity around the MLB Draft like there is over all of the other sports. Perhaps it is because there are so many players to keep track of between high school and college, but I think televising the Draft could help long term. Now we can refocus on the actual game of baseball with the Red Sox and Dodgers squaring off tonight. 

I spent a ton of words talking about the Red Sox the other day as I gave some mid-season bets out for readers. I have been surprised about the way that the Red Sox have played this season. Right now, they are in a position where they can make it to the postseason via the Wild Card. They still have a chance to take the division, they would need to overcome both the Orioles and Yankees. This is significant to note because for 90% of the year so far no other team looked like they even had a chance to compete for the division. Boston has hit well and pitched well which cannot be said for all teams. If they make it to the postseason, they really will be a tough out for whoever they face. Tonight they put out Kutter Crawford on the mound with a 6-7 record, 3.04 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP in 112.2 innings pitched. Crawford is top-15 in both ERA and WHIP. He has actually been even more impressive with Crawford on the road with a 2.35 ERA. He has also held hitters to a .212 batting average overall, and .201 on the road. The other significant split is Day/Night. In three-day starts, he has a .048 ERA, but his night ERA isn't that bad either with a 3.54 line. The Dodgers hitters are 6-for-23 against him but he has only allowed one extra-base hit. 

May 24, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher James Paxton (65) pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The Dodgers have been considered the cream of the crop for the National League for the past few years, and they remain that way. I think you also can call the Braves or Phillies top teams, but the Dodgers remain one of the best clubs that put all resources into fielding a winning club. Interestingly enough, despite their success, they wouldn't lead the AL East right now. Still, the fact that the team is playing this well despite being without MVP candidate Mookie Betts, and a comical parade of issues with their pitching staff for years, should be commended. It is interesting to consider where they would be without Betts if they weren't able to grab Shohei Ohtani in free agency. Ohtani has been worth every penny to this point in his Dodger career. Although it has only been one half of a season, he is hitting .316 with 29 homers, and 69 RBIs. He is well on his way to winning another MVP award. On the mound, the Dodgers put James Paxton. Paxton had a strong career with the Mariners before leaving for New York where he struggled a bit. He then went back to Seattle and was out for a year before going back to the Red Sox last year, and now landing with the Dodgers this year. Paxton has been good this season with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.45 ERA. His last seven starts have been interesting. He has two starts of six or more innings. He also has two starts where he allowed six runs and nine runs. The other ones were five innings or fewer, but three runs or fewer as well. All of that is to say they are a bit all over the board. Most Red Sox hitters haven't seen Paxton, but Rafael Devers is good against him (who isn't he good against?) going 7-for-17 against him.

I think the Red Sox will take this game. The ESPN stat thing gives the Dodgers a 66% chance of winning before the game, but Crawford has been so good on the road and good overall. Paxton hasn't been consistent enough to trust that he can beat a good team like Boston. I'm willing to back Boston for the full game in this one. I also think that the first five innings could be a good option, but I'd prefer to play the full game. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024