Aztecs Defense Will Fluster Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State, 6:09 ET

I can't imagine there are many people out there with Florida Atlantic in the Final Four remaining in their brackets for this March Madness. For that matter, there probably aren't too many with San Diego State in there. However, here were are after both put together a magical run and got to the Final Four, now just a game away from the NCAA Championship. How do we bet these Cinderella stories?

While what Florida Atlantic has done in the NCAA tournament this year is nothing short of remarkable, but rather than thrive in the tournament, they have survived. Their opening game of the Big Dance was against a tough Memphis team and somehow they pulled it out. Had one bounce gone the other way we could see the Tigers here instead. Then they got a 16-seed that beat Purdue. While you'd think that should be an easy game, they had to somewhat grind out an eight-point victory. Their past two games were the most impressive to me. Beating Tennessee took them being able to play stout defense. In that matchup they were able to hold a decent enough Volunteer team to just 55 points. In the next game, they needed to be more of an offensive juggernaut and keep pace with a high-scoring Kansas State team. They put up 79 points against the Wildcats, which isn't remarkable because Kansas State's defense is rough, but it was what they needed to do. Florida Atlantic is just getting it done. In order for them to get it done again against San Diego State, they need to be incredibly efficient on offense. I find it hard to see them outrebound the Aztecs, but if they can control the glass and be patient, they can control the pace and capitalize on the mistakes.

San Diego State looked a little shaky in their first game of the tournament. As a five-point (5.5 in some places) they battled back and forth against Charleston. Ultimately, they won and covered, but I wouldn't consider this a very convincing game. After that, they took on a Furman team that played really well in their first game. That was an absolute thrashing and the Aztecs coasted to a 23-point victory. The game they played against Alabama was another game that was back and forth, seeing Alabama down at halftime before they took a lead. Then, San Diego State finally took over and closed the game strong. Creighton played San Diego State very well. The Aztecs couldn't buy a bucket but kept pushing the issue and finally broke through. Once again, they leaned on their defense to stop Creighton and ultimately came out with a 57-56 victory after a controversial foul call close to the buzzer. In order to win this one, the Aztecs need to keep doing what they are doing defensively. All five guys play together and they switch very well.

I don't see San Diego State shooting as poorly as they did in the Creighton game. I could see Florida Atlantic struggle to get the victory because of how strong the defense is from the Aztecs. I'm backing them to cover the -3 in this game. I expect San Diego State to be in the National Championship.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024