Auburn Vs. Houston Will Be A Rock-Fight Saturday In The NCAA Tournament

Keep It Simple Stupid is the play in the 8-seed Auburn Tigers vs. 1-seed Houston Cougars in the Midwest Regional of the 2023 NCAA Tournament Saturday.

Since the Tigers are a terrible shooting team and the Cougars' star PG Marcus Sasser is battling a groin injury, UNDER THE TOTAL is the best bet. Tip-off for Auburn-Houston is 7:10 p.m. ET and the game airs on TBS.

Auburn vs. Houston Betting Board (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Houston has gone Under in four straight NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season. The Cougars have an average Over/Under (O/U) margin of -16.9 points per game in those contests.

Auburn is 4-0 O/U in the last four games with a -13.0 O/U margin. The Tigers went Over the total in their 83-75 win vs. Iowa in the Round of 64. The public is seeing this Auburn-Houston total and thinking it's too low.

Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl going ballistic on the sidelines vs. Iowa during the NCAA Tournament at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

But, Sasser sat out the 2nd half of Houston's 63-52 over 16-seed Northern Kentucky in the Round of 64. He is the American Athletic Conference Player of the Year maestro of Houston's offense.

With Sasser being less than 100%, the Cougars will lean more on their defense and slow down the pace. This is how Houston generally wants to play anyhow.

Houston is 4th nationally out of 363 programs in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. The Cougars are 324th in adjusted offensive tempo as well.

Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson coaches up Cougars PG Jamal Shead vs. Northern Kentucky in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

Furthermore, the Cougars should want to slow this game down because the Tigers are a bad shooting team. Auburn ranks 218th in effective field goal shooting, according to KenPom.com.

My major concern for betting Under is both teams having a bad defensive free-throw-attempt rate. However, the Cougars don't get to the foul line often and the Tigers are 233rd in free throw shooting percentage.

Also, more money at DraftKings is on the Under at the time of writing, per VSIN. Whereas more bets are on the Over. The public loves to bet Overs in primetime games so professionals usually take the Under.

BET: UNDER 132 in Auburn-Houston (-110) at DraftKings, down to 131

Odds for the Under in Auburn Tigers vs. Houston Cougars in the Midwest Regional of the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook.