AT&T Byron Nelson 2023: Horses For The Course Include Hideki Matsuyama, Eric Cole

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Before the PGA Tour's 2nd major of the season, we head to TPC Craig Ranch Thursday, May 11th for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson in McKinney, Dallas, Texas.

Even though this is one of the oldest events on the PGA Tour calendar, the course history prior to 2021 is irrelevant because that's when TPC Craig Ranch began hosting the Byron Nelson.

This is also known as the K.H. Lee Invitational since he has won the last two Byron Nelsons. K.H. Lee beat Sam Burns in 2021 by three strokes. He successfully defended his title in 2022 defeating Jordan Spieth by one stroke.

Because the 2023 PGA Championship is next week and last week's 2023 Wells Fargo Championship was an "elevated event," the Byron Nelson field is weak.

Also, this year’s field is easier since many golfers in last year’s field defected to the LIV Tour. Dustin Johnson, Joaquin Niemann, Talor Gooch, Mito Pereira, and Bubba Watson all played here in 2022. 

The best golfers at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson are World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler, No. 17 Tyrrell Hatton, No. 19 Tom Kim, No. 22 Hideki Matsuyama, and No. Jason Day.

Other top-tier golfers in last year’s field sitting out this season: Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Burns, and Spieth, who just withdrew from the Byron Nelson Monday.

Jordan Spieth watches his shot from the 3rd fairway during the final round of the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.

Jordan Spieth watches his shot from the 3rd fairway during the final round of the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson. (Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)

Speaking of Jason Day, he's one of the three golfers that screwed me last week. The Wells Fargo was Wyndham Clark's 1st career PGA Tour victory and Rickie Fowler was the only golfer that made me money.

My PGA Tour 2022-23 balance fell to -4.97 units (u) after dropping -3.3u at the Wells Fargo. My recap of that event is at the bottom. (Pro Tip: Look for sportsbooks that offer full payouts for placement bets instead of applying “dead heat rules”.)

AT&T Byron Nelson ‘Horses for the Course’

Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki is 2nd in my Byron Nelson power rankings behind Scheffler. He is 7th in my key stats model, and 1st in SG: Tee-to-Green at long, easy courses, over the last 50 rounds. 

Matsuyama 3rd in total Strokes Gained (SG) over the last 12 rounds. He finished T16 at the Masters, T15 at the Valero Texas Open, and 5th at THE PLAYERS Championship.

'Deki has played well throughout the bag lately picking up strokes in the five major categories over his last five and 10 events including on the greens where Matsuyama usually struggles. 

Speaking of which, four of Matsuyama’s eight career PGA Tour wins have been on Bent grass greens. He gained nearly 1.5 strokes putting in the last two Byron Nelsons. Hideki also led the 2022 Byron Nelson field in SG: Approach (APP). 

Hideki Matsuyama lines up a putt on the 1st green during the final round of the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

Hideki Matsuyama lines up a putt on the 1st green during the final round of the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Hideki sat out the 2022 RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo before finishing T3 at last year’s Byron Nelson. Matsuyama had the 8th-best odds heading into this tourney last season at +2500. This year, he has the 5th-best odds; again, this is a significantly easier field. 

Over his last 24 rounds, Matsuyama is 2nd in Par 3 scoring and 9th in Par 5 scoring. The four Par 3s at TPC Craig Ranch are the course’s four toughest holes. Plus, in a birdie-fest, scoring on Par 5s is a must. 

Finally, Matsuyama is a back-to-back Phoenix Open winner in 2016-17, which is played at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. Tom Weiskopf is the co-designer of TPC Scottsdale and designed TPC Craig Ranch.

1st Byron Nelson Thoroughbred: Hideki Matsuyama

Min Woo Lee

Lee is priced right at +4000 but I’m just feeling like he’ll go well this week. Lee finished 6th at THE PLAYERS in March, which is played at a much tougher TPC course (Sawgrass).

He was in the final group of THE PLAYERS with Scheffler Sunday and shot 4-over in Round 4. Since then, Lee has missed the cut in his last two events: The Masters and RBC Heritage. 

Much like a struggling quarterback facing a bad defense, this event should be a get-right spot for Lee. TPC Craig Ranch is an easy, but long, course that Lee can overpower. Bombers have the edge here because of the long Par 4s and APP shots. 

Min Woo Lee hits a tee shot on the 15th hole during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Min Woo Lee hits a tee shot on the 15th hole during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (James Gilbert/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

Lee crushes the ball off-the-tee and has the 3rd-longest driving distance in this field. He is 7th in this field for Proximity from 200+ yards on APP shots and 14th in Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained. 

Also, these odds are disrespectful for a golfer as good as Lee. He is off American golf fans’ radar but Lee is 6th in the DP World Tour rankings.

Lee played in eight DP World Tour events from October 2022 to January 2023 before entering The Honda Classic in February. In those eight DP World Tour starts, Lee was T13 or better in all eight including a T4 and three 3rd-place finishes. 

Lee chips onto the 13th green during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship.

Lee chips onto the 13th green during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship. (Logan Bowles/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

He has worse odds than Taylor Montgomery and the same odds as Stephan Jaeger. Jaeger is winless on Tour and Montgomery is a PGA Tour rookie and has never won an event on Tour. 

Lee has higher win equity than those two. He won the 2021 Abrdn Scottish Open in a playoff with Thomas Detry and 2022 U.S. Open champion, Matt Fitzpatrick.

2nd Byron Nelson Thoroughbred: Min Woo Lee

Eric Cole

Frankly, I’m in a slump betting on the PGA Tour and need to shake things up. This is Cole’s rookie season and I haven’t backed him yet. But, Cole is 9th in my 2023 Byron Nelson power rankings and has roughly the 34th-best odds in this field.

Over the last 24 rounds, Cole is 4th in my key stat model: 8th in SG: APP, 6th in Par 4 scoring, and 10th in SG: Ball striking (BS). There are six Par 4s within that yardage range at TPC Craig Ranch.

This was a Par 72-course the last two years but TPC Craig Ranch changed Hole No. 12 from a Par 5 to a long Par 4. Cole has been crushing long Par 4s over the last 24 rounds: 7th in Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 450-500 yards. 

Eric Cole plays his second shot on the 1st hole during the 1st round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida.

Eric Cole plays his 2nd shot on the 1st hole during the 1st round of the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. (David Cannon/Getty Images)

Keep in mind, the last two Byron Nelsons have been birdie-fests. You need to hit putts if you’re going to contend this week and putting is streaky and has high variance.

Over the last eight rounds, Cole is 8th in SG: Putting on Bent grass greens. Cole has picked up an average of 1.6 strokes per round with the putter over his last 10 events. 

Cole has picked up strokes with his irons in 11 of his last 13 PGA Tour starts to set himself up with makeable putts. He missed the cut at last week’s Wells Fargo. Cole finished T5 at the 2023 Mexico Open two weeks ago.

The Mexico Open is played at another long Par 71 course, Vidanta Vallarta, that’s a bomber’s paradise. Cole’s other notable finish this season was a 2nd in The Honda where he lost to Chris Kirk in a playoff.

Cole plays a shot on the 6th hole during the 2nd round of the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco.

Cole plays a shot on the 6th hole during the 2nd round of the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco. (Hector Vivas/Getty Images)

The Honda is played at the PGA National course and shot 14-under par. PGA National is NOT a comp course to TPC Craig Ranch. It is a Par 70 with Bermuda grass greens in Florida and is one of the toughest courses on Tour.

TPC Craig Ranch is longer with different grass and is in Texas, which is, as we all know, a completely different state. But, my point is if Cole can shoot a 14-under at PGA National then he can score the 20-to-25-under par needed to win the 2023 Byron Nelson. 

For the record, I’m only sprinkling on Cole outright but I love his top-20 price. 

3rd Byron Nelson Thoroughbred: Eric Cole

Sam Stevens

Stevens is another rookie I’m going to the betting window for. He’s from Fort Worth, Texas, 50 miles from TPC Craig Ranch, which is an easy drive for Texans.

Truth be told, I don’t know how familiar Stevens is with this track. Stevens is a 26-year-old Oklahoma State alum though so he’s familiar with the climate and surrounding courses.

Sam Stevens reacts after missing a birdie putt on the 18th green during the final round of the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.

Sam Stevens reacts after missing a birdie putt on the 18th green during the final round of the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. (Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)

His best finish this season is a 2nd-place finish in April’s Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. This supports the idea of Stevens being comfortable in the Lone Star State. 

Furthermore, Stevens is 2nd in this field for total SG behind Scheffler, and 11th or better in Par 4 EFF: 450-500, Par 5 scoring, BoB Gained, SG: BS, SG: Off-the-Tee, and Par 3 scoring, over the last 24 rounds.

The same betting logic and bankroll management for Cole above applies here to Stevens. 

4th Byron Nelson Thoroughbred: Sam Stevens

Wells Fargo Championship 2023 Betting Recap: -3.3 units

“Horses for the course”

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