WTF Are The Atlanta Falcons Doing And Why Are They Odds-On Favorites To Win The NFC South In 2024?

NFL 2024 is around the corner with all 32 teams reporting for training camp in mid-to-late July. Last season, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. With the AFC South completed, the Atlanta Falcons are my first NFC South preview.

I don't know which is a dumber move: Signing 36-year-old QB Kirk Cousins coming off a season-ending Achilles injury to a 4-year, $180 million deal or taking 24-year-old Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft afterward. The combo might be an unforgivable sin for a team that doesn't have the luxury of squandering picks. 

It was the second straight NFL draft Atlanta operated as if it had no holes and was in "win-now" mode. Last year, the Falcons took RB Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick, and any NFL nerd will tell you "running backs don't matter" in today's game. In fact, RBSDM.com is a wonderful advanced NFL analytics site that's an acronym for "running backs don't matter". 

Atlanta Falcons rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. trains with QB Kirk Cousins during OTA workouts. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Regardless, Atlanta is the "odds-on" favorite to win the NFC South and the third-biggest favorite of any NFL team to win its division next year, behind the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (-230) and the NFC-winning San Francisco 49ers (-195). Obviously, that says more about the NFC South than the Falcons. 

They had lofty expectations last season as well. Atlanta was the favorite to win the NFC South in 2023 at +200 odds, per SportsOddsHistory.com, and had an 8.5-win total. But, after a third consecutive 7-10 season, the Falcons finally put former head coach Arthur Smith out of his misery this offseason. 

READ: Kirk Cousins Believes There Is A Quarterback Competition With Michael Penix Jr. In Atlanta

Atlanta hired former Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator (2021-23), and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach (2009-11), Raheem Morris to replace Smith. The Falcons went "overkill" addressing the quarterback position, which has been a problem since former franchise QB Matt Ryan's decline and departure. 

Otherwise, they didn't upgrade the roster in free agency. New Atlanta WRs Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore aren't "needle movers". The Falcons lost their two best pass rushers from last season: DE Calais Campbell and OLB Bud Dupree, who both had 6.5 sacks. 

With this in mind, Atlanta is getting too much love from the market, making them a better team to fade than to invest in. 

Atlanta Falcons 2024 Odds

Courtesy of DraftKings at 2:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, July 30. 

• Super Bowl: +3000
• Conference: +1300
• Division: -120
• Playoffs: Yes (-190) | No (+150)
• 9.5 Wins: Over (-135) | Under (+115)

What's the difference between the Minnesota Vikings and the Falcons? Both have strong offensive lines and talented skill-position players. Yet, the Vikings let Cousins walk in free agency, signaling they knew the four-time Pro Bowler's best years were behind him. Given what we've seen from Atlanta's front office recently, I'll side with Minnesota's decision-making.

The Vikings went 13-4 and made the playoffs with Cousins in 2022. After a bumpy start last year, including losses to the 2022 NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and 2022 Super Bowl champion Chiefs, Minnesota rallied. The Vikings beat the 49ers and Green Bay Packers in Weeks 7-8 to get back to .500 before losing Cousins to injury. 

Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins practicing during OTAs. (Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

He looked like an NFL MVP candidate before getting hurt last year. Cousins threw 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and had his best QBR since going to Minnesota in 2018. But, until 2022, when he led the NFL with eight game-winning drives and eight fourth-quarter comebacks, Cousins couldn't elevate his team to wins. 

Captain Kirk never threw to the sticks on third down and Cousins' low interception numbers were due to his lack of aggression rather than his accuracy. My point is Cousins' last 25 regular-season games are more of an outlier than something the Falcons can count on moving forward. 

Despite their garbage division and super soft schedule, I have Atlanta going 9-8 and FINISHING SECOND IN THE NFC SOUTH. 

‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Atlanta Falcons on an unlimited bankroll: To Miss The Playoffs (+156) at FanDuel 

This is more of a "No" bet on Atlanta winning its division since only one NFC South team will make the playoffs this year. (Spoiler alert: I'm betting the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South in 2024). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only NFC South team to make the playoffs the last two seasons because they won the division. Tampa was 9-8 in 2023 and 8-9 in 2022. 

Furthermore, the NFC will be tougher this year. Green Bay QB Jordan Love signed a massive new deal in late July and played like a top-10 quarterback after November last season. San Francisco, the Detroit Lions, and the Los Angeles Rams will be Super Bowl contenders again. There are two better NFC East teams than the Falcons. Basically, the NFC South ain't getting two playoff teams this year. 

Lastly, I disagree with the market about Atlanta's defense. According to their spreads and totals for all 17 regular-season games at DraftKings, the Falcons are projected to have the eighth-best defense. However, I have them closer to the middle of the pack, when you adjust for their opponents. If it played a league-average schedule, Atlanta's defense would rank outside the top 20. 

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