Assad Looks To Get Cubs Back On Track Against Rolling Reds

Cubs vs. Reds, 7:10 ET

Today is a bit of a strange day for the MLB. Typically, on Thursdays there are a lot of teams with off days. It is a very normal travel day for a lot of clubs, but we have 20 teams taking the field. While that means that 10 clubs are off to their next destination, it also means that we have more games to choose from. There are a couple of other games that I like today (Yankees to beat the Twins through five, and the Cardinals to cover the run line through five and full game against the Rockies), but I really like this game between the Cubs and the Reds. 

After starting the year very strong and looking like a true contender, the rug has been pulled out from underneath the Cubs, and it looks like they will struggle to find a shot at the Wild Card at the end of the season. The truth probably lies somewhere between their good start and this disaster stretch they've been on, but you are what your record says you are and right now the club is 31-31 and just 13-18 away from the Friendly Confines. The news gets a bit worse for them as the Cardinals and Reds are both playing better baseball coinciding with the slump the Cubs have been in. Maybe it was an injury issue that is now behind them, maybe it is that players like Dansby Sawnson are hitting .205 for the team. Whatever the reason, the Cubs need to figure it out and do it in a hurry or what was a two-team NL Central will quickly become a four-horse race. Their starting pitching has been pretty good, and if they make the playoffs, it would be hard to imagine beating their three arms consistently. Today one of those arms, Javier Assad, takes the ball and hopes to continue his strong season. For the year, Assad is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Assad's most recent start was also against the Reds and he was able to turn in 5.1 innings of five-hit, two-run ball. He is concerning me with the number of players he's walking - 17 in 31.1 innings last month, and add another 26 hits to that, he put on 43 runners. Only 11 runs (9 earned) happened, but that's still a lot of traffic on the bases. 

April 21, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) and Cincinnati Reds second base Santiago Espinal (4) celebrate the win at the conclusion of the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY Sports via The Cincinnati Enquirer

My discussion of the Cubs may have been doom and gloom, I can tell you that wasn't my intention. I know there is plenty of baseball remaining and know that the second half of the season tends to reshape how we think about some of the clubs. The Reds have been a perfect example of how you can have a big struggle at one point, but shouldn't be completely dismissed. From April 30th to May 23rd, the Reds went 4-17. They were, at the time, the worst team in baseball. Then they swept the Dodgers on the road, and have gone 9-3 over their past 12 games. Things can turn around in a hurry and while 13-20 isn't a great stretch of 33 games, it certainly looks better than I first mentioned. One of the guys that has done well for the club is today's starter, Hunter Greene. Greene has a strong 3.44 ERA and an impressive 1.16 WHIP. May was a great month for him as he allowed just eight earned runs over 30 innings, good for a 2.40 ERA for the month. Like Assad he does have some concerns with walking hitters. On the year he has 30 walks in 70 innings which isn't terrible, but he has walked 18 hitters over his last 36 innings. He faced the Cubs last time out and allowed five earned runs on just three hits, but also five walks over six innings. 

If you want to pick the hotter team, take the Reds, they are playing better baseball. If you want to take the better pitcher (at least starter) you're probably going to have to back Assad in this one. I don't personally have a great feeling either way on the winner. Instead, I like the under through five innings. I think both starters are going to be able to keep a relatively clean sheet for the game. I am seeing a line of under 5.5 through five innings for -135 and that's what I'll play.

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