Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 Starting 5, One-And-Done Pick
Wee-oww, wee-oww, wee-oww, Arnold Palmer alert. If you don't get that movie reference, do yourself a favor and check out The Other Guys starring Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg. It's one of the funniest movies of the last 20 years. I'm reminded of that movie and scene every year when it's the week of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Florida.
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Anyhow, the Arnold Palmer (API) is the fourth "signature event" of the PGA Tour 2024 season. There is a $20 million prize pool with the victor claiming $4 million and a cool red jacket. The top 50 players with ties make the cut after 54 holes. Kurt Kitayama won the 2023 API as a 200-to-1 bomb for his 1st-ever PGA Tour win.
For the record, my gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
Arnold Palmer Invitational ‘Starting 5’
- Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Sam Burns
Bermuda Burns putts his a** off in Florida. Over the last 28 rounds with PGA Tour shot-link data, Burns is sixth in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Bermuda greens and fifth in 3-Putt Avoidance, according to Bet The Number.
Burns missed the cut at last year’s Arnold Palmer. I know because he made my 2023 Arnold Palmer betting card. But, Burns is ball-striking much better this season. Last year, Burns ranked 111th in Ball Striking on Tour entering the Arnold Palmer. This season, Burns is fifth.
Sam Burns chips onto the 7th green in the 2nd round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. (Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, there are a ton of approach shots from 200+ yards out at Bay Hill. Over his last 28 rounds, Burns ranks second in this field in Greens-in-Regulation (GIRs) rate from 200+ yards, per Bet The Number. He’s 14th in approach shots from 150-250 yards over that span as well.
Most importantly, Burns has "true win equity". The 27-year-old is already a 5-time PGA Tour winner. He won the 2023 World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. The Dell Match Play was a "signature event" on Tour featuring the world’s best golfers. Burns won back-to-back Valspar Championships, which is part of the Florida Swing.
The first starter at Bay Hill: Sam Burns
- Win: +2500 at FanDuel (0.8u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +180 at BetMGM (1u to win 1.8u)
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Cameron Young
Last season was a down year for Young. But, the 26-year-old is starting to play like the neophyte he was in his 2022 rookie season. Young was a runner-up five times in 2022-23 and lost to Burns in the 2023 Dell Match Play. Over his last three starts, Young has finished T8 at the WM Phoenix Open, T16 at the Genesis Invitational (a "signature event" on Tour), and T3 at last week's Cognizant Classic.
In his first two starts at Bay Hill, the Wake Forest alum finished T10 in 2023 and T13 in 2022. Young was +9.7 SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) in the Arnold Palmer last season and +7.0 SG: T2G two years ago. Young’s short-game is abysmal. Yet, I will overlook that because he’s one of the most powerful ball strikers in the world.
Cameron Young hits an approach shot on the fourth hole in the first round of The Sentry 2024 at the Kapalua Golf Resort in Hawaii. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Bay Hill is a "big boy’s course" and he is one of the few golfers who can overpower this course. All four of the Par 5s at Bay Hill are approachable in two shots for Young. Over the last 28 rounds with shot-link data on the PGA Tour, Young is seventh in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT), fourth in Ball Speed, and first in GIRs from 200+ yards, per Bet The Number.
The second starter at Bay Hill: Cameron Young
- Win: +2800 at FanDuel (0.71u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +220 at BetMGM (0.77u to win 1.17u)
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Keegan Bradley
This is a "course history" bet. After missing the cut at his first Arnold Palmer in 2011, Bradley has played on the weekend in 11 consecutive starts at Bay Hill. His best finishes are T3 in 2013 and solo second in 2014. Bradley was T10, T11, and T10 in the last three Arnold Palmers. Keegan is +4.3 SG: T2G in his last four starts at Bay Hill.
Keegan Bradley hits a chip shot during the third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024 at Pebble Beach Golf Links. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Over the last 20 rounds with PGA Tour shot-link data, Keegan is 14th in this field for SG: OTT, 6th in Approach shots from 150-250 yards, and 11th in GIRs from 200+ yards. This season, Bradley lost in a playoff in the 2024 Sony Open and finished T11 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a "signature event" on Tour.
The third starter at Bay Hill: Keegan Bradley
- Win: +5500 at FanDuel (0.36u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +140 at BetMGM (1u to win 1.4u)
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Wyndham Clark
The 2023 U.S. Open champion can implement Tiger Woods' strategy at Bay Hill, which is to play conservatively but take advantage of the Par 5s. Clark leads the field over the last 20 rounds in Par 5 scoring, per Bet The Number.
"Club head speed" is important at Bay Hill because of the course's length and the difficulty of the rough. Clark has the fastest ball speed in this field over the last 20 rounds and ranks 8th in SG: OTT. Despite being a "bomber", Clark has a soft touch around-the-green (ARG).
Wyndham Clark at the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Monterey, California. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
Over the last 75 rounds, Clark is 15th in SG: ARG and 14th in 3-Putt Avoidance, according to Fantasy National. Even if he is inaccurate OTT or with his irons, Wyndham has the power to hit it out of the thick rough at Bay Hill and save par.
Finally, this number is just too juicy to pass up. Again, Clark is the reigning U.S. Open champion. Wyndham also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a "signature event", last month, and the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, another "signature event".
The fourth starter at Bay Hill: Wyndham Clark
- Win: +6000 at FanDuel (0.33u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +130 at BetMGM (1u to win 1.3u)
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Jake Knapp
Knapp Time became one of my guys after I hit him at the Mexico Open 2024 at 40-to-1 odds. He punishes the ball OTT and has been one of the best golfers on Tour so far this season. Jake ranks fourth in my 20-round model at Bet The Number.
Jake Knapp tees off on the ninth hole during the opening round of The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches 2024 at PGA National. (JEFF ROMANCE/THE PALM BEACH POST/USA TODAY NETWORK)
He is second in this field for ball speed, third in SG: Approach, third in GIRs from 200+ yards, and fourth in 3-Putt Avoidance. Also, Bay Hill has the 11th-most bunkers of the 44 courses used on the PGA Tour this season. Knapp is second in Sand Save rate.
The fifth starter at Bay Hill: Jake Knapp
- Win: +6600 at Bet365 (0.3u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +140 at BetMGM (1u to 1.4u)
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Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Scottie Scheffler
Through the first eight events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm tied for 1,767th place out of 4,400 entries with $1,461,494 collected.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
Scottie Scheffler is awarded the championship trophy after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022 at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. (Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)
The Arnold Palmer has to be the best event to use Scheffler in. He's first in everyone's models. Scheffler won at Bay Hill in 2022 and backed it up with a T4 last season. His finishes this season are T10 at the Genesis, T3 at the WM Phoenix Open, T6 at Pebble Beach, T17 at the American Express, and T25 at the Sentry 2024.
Since the API is a "signature event", you have to use a big dog here. Scheffler's chances of winning at Bay Hill are slightly better than a major because no LIV Tour players are in this field.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.