Arizona, Saint Mary's Will Vie For West Region In NCAA Tournament 2024
Let me clarify before kicking off my NCAA Tournament 2024 West Regional preview: I'm dead money in these bracket pools or, in general, betting on college basketball. The only March Madness pool I've won was when the Syracuse Orange won the national championship in the Carmelo Anthony year. I only did so because I grew up a huge Syracuse fan and loved Carmelo. Otherwise, I'm a mark in college basketball.
That said, I've spent way too much time looking at Ken Pom and Bart Torvik for an edge when filling out my bracket. Have I found one? Probably not. Am I gambling regardless? You damn right I am. While surfing the internet, I found a cool feature on NCAA.com's March Madness 2024 Bracket Challenge. Click the little "i" icon next to each game, and you can check off your most important stats.
Courtesy of NCAA.com.
The stats I'm using to fill out my bracket and game-to-game betting include net efficiency, assist-to-turnover ratio, rebounds per game, true shooting percentage, paint points per game (PPG), fastbreak PPG, points off of turnovers, and second-chance PPG. Here are my top five teams according to those stats, followed by their "matchup analysis" scores.
- Arizona Wildcats, 2-seed in the West: 77.7
- UConn Huskies, 1-seed in the East: 72.6
- Gonzaga Bulldogs, 5-seed in the Midwest: 72.4
- Kentucky Wildcats, 3-seed in the South: 71.5
- Auburn Tigers, 4-seed in the East: 67.9
March Madness 2024 Betting Performance: -6.55 units (u)
- Game-by-Game: 3-6 (-3.8u)
- Conference Tournament Futures: -2.75u
Round 1
I have three "bracket upsets" in the West Regional, but only one is a "betting upset". A nice shortcut for filling out your bracket is to ignore the seed numbers and look at the spreads for the games. The 11-seed New Mexico is -1.5 over 6-seed Clemson and 9-seed Michigan State is -1 vs. 8-seed Mississippi State at DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm picking the higher seeds in both matchups to advance.
My one "betting upset" is 13-seed Charleston to beat 4-seed Alabama Friday, March 22nd. I'm still toying with the idea of sprinkling on Charleston's +370 moneyline on top of taking +9.5 with the Cougars. I'll circle back on that game later in the week. I like Charleston here because the Crimson Tide is playing badly entering the tourney and their defense cannot stop a nosebleed. Besides those upsets, I'm going chalk with the rest of my picks for the first- and second-rounds.
Sweet Sixteen
North Carolina's title bid ends when it meets 5-seed Saint Mary's. Due to their size, the Tar Heels usually crush opponents on the boards. However, the Gaels are third in offensive rebounding rate, per Ken Pom, and second defensively. Saint Mary's C Mitchell Saxen neutralizes North Carolina C Armando Bacot and the Gaels are bigger at every other position on the floor.
Based on the stats above, Saint Mary's has a 64.1 "matchup analysis score" and UNC has just a 61.2 score. Finally, the Gaels get better looks and prevent easy buckets. They rank better in both offensive and defensive 2-point shooting.
Pick to win the West Region: 2-seed Arizona (+190)
The Wildcats have a championship profile. Per Ken Pom, they are eighth in adjusted offensive rating and 12th defensively and have a plus-net in all "four factors". Arizona ranks 26th in strength of schedule and has an 8-3 record in Quad 1 games. The Wildcats have wins over fellow non-conference tourney teams such as Duke, Michigan State, Colgate, Wisconsin, and Alabama.
Arizona PG Caleb Love celebrates a dunk vs. the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene. (Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard/USA TODAY NETWORK)
They puked all over themselves last year by losing as a 2-seed to 15-seed Princeton. But, Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd made a Sweet Sixteen appearance in his first year on the job in 2022. Plus, the Wildcats will have fans at the Crypto.com Arena for the regional semifinals and finals. There are a lot of Arizona alumni in Los Angeles who'll come out and support their team.
Best Bets for the West Region:
- Saint Mary's to reach the Elite Eight (+500): 0.5u.
- Arizona to win the West Regional (+190): 1u.
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