Angels Should Be Favored In This One

Angels vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

I was thinking about writing about another WNBA game because I’m 3-0 and have a play for tonight’s game between the Sun and Sky (Chennedy Carter, yes, the girl that pushed Caitlin Clark over 11.5 points -120), but I really couldn’t pass up this game. It isn’t that this is the best pitching matchup of the day (that’s between Framber Valdez of the Astros and Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants). I couldn’t pass this up because I think this is a good opportunity for us to take a plus money play in a game between the Angels and the Diamondbacks.

I read the MLB Player Survey from the Athletic the other day and was a bit surprised about a couple of the answers. One of them still has Mike Trout listed as one of the top vote getters for a question about who the best player in baseball is. That was surprising because Trout hasn’t played a full season in, well, ever. But the most games he’s played in a season over the past four years is 119. Since 2017 his highest game total is 140 (keep in mind 2020 was a short season, and he did play 53 games). Still this year he was hitting just .220 with 10 homers and 14 RBIs in 29 games. While the homer number is great, the RBIs are terribly low and so is the average. The other standout question was that the Angels were one of the worst franchises in baseball according to players. While I think they are cursed or something, I was a bit surprised that players felt this way. The complaint was that they don’t spend money. I disagree, they spend money, the results just are terrible. In any case, tonight they take on the Diamondbacks without Trout and Anthony Rendon (voted as one of the most overrated players in the game, and a guy they spent a ton of money to get). Tonight’s starter is Jose Soriano. Soriano has put together a pretty nice campaign overall with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He also has been significantly better on the road than at home. In seven appearances, Soriano has a 2.35 road ERA compared with a 5.54 ERA at home. Diamondbacks hitters are only 1-for-5 against Soriano, with the one hit leaving the yard. 

The Diamondbacks don’t have the same attention as the Angels did in that survey, but they have a target on their back this season. That is certainly something they didn’t have last year. It is nice to be able to fly under the radar, but this year they haven’t enjoyed the same type of comfort. They are one of many teams that are just a few games under .500, and currently sit in fourth place within their division. Fourth place really isn’t that big of a deal because they are two games behind second place. The problem is there are so many teams with similar records, and the Dodgers aren’t going to be caught for the division this season unless they suffer injuries. Tonight, they put Slade Cecconi on the hill. His ERA (5.66) is a bit ugly, but he does have a strong 1.14 WHIP. Looking a bit deeper into it, you see that he has allowed 10 homers in 41.1 innings. That’s where the ERA is coming from. After starting the year with two quality starts, he hasn’t finished six innings since. He also has had three starts where he has allowed six earned runs. He’s never faced the Angels, but one thing to note is he has only made two home starts and has allowed 12 earned runs over 10 innings. 

There really isn’t much of a question about which team is the better team. The Diamondbacks aren’t playing great baseball, but it is still better than what the Angels are producing. The reality of this particular game is that the Angels have the better pitcher. Cecconi has shown no indication that he can be a reliable starter for the team, especially at home. Soriano has been very good on the road, and fairly strong overall. I’ll rely on the Angels to win via the moneyline through five at +114. I’ll also sprinkle the -0.5 at +145. 

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