The American Express 2025 Best Bets: Winners, Finishing Positions, One-And-Done Pick

After two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA TOUR heads to the mainland Thursday for The American Express 2025 in La Quinta, California. The AmEx starts the TOUR's five-event West Coast Swing. This is a unique tournament with a three-course rota and a 54-hole cut. You can read more about the AmEx format, courses, and event history in the X posts below. 

Since three of my four bets to win last week's Sony Open missed the cut, and my fourth withdrew before the tournament started, it was hard to pay attention to golf last week. I put in a live bet on Hideki Matsuyama in Round 3, but he never got into contention. Thankfully, Harry Hall cashed a top-20 bet for me, or else the Sony Open would've been a full-blown disaster. 

Entering the 2025 AmEx, I'm -4.03 units (u). I recommend using caution when betting on this tournament since it's a "birdie-fest" and if a golfer you bet has one bad round, your bet is screwed. Of course, I'm not listening to my advice. Instead, I have outrights, placement bets, and a "one-and-done" pick for this crapshoot.  

The American Express 2025 Betting Card

Picks To Win 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com. 

Sam Burns (+1600)

There is some scar tissue here for Burns. He had the 36-hole lead at the 2024 AmEx and choked on the last two holes in the final round. Burns put both tee shots on Holes 17 and 18 in the water, leading to double bogeys, and finishing four strokes behind the winner, Nick Dunlap. Nonetheless, Burns is a proven winner with a good track record in the AmEx. 

He is a five-time PGA TOUR champion, highlighted by his 2023 WGC-Dell Technology Match Play victory, a "signature event" that year. On top of his T6 last year, Burns was T11 at the 2023 AmEx, T6 in 2020, and T18 in 2019. Finally, Burns had a great 2024 even though he didn’t win and could have a big season in 2025. 

Sam Burns hits an approach shot at hole No. 16 at the Pete Dye Stadium Course during Round 4 of The American Express 2024 at La Quinta, California. (Photo credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Burns had seven top-10 finishes last year, including 10th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ("signature event"), T10 at the Genesis Invitational ("signature event"), T9 at the 2024 U.S. Open, and T2 at the BMW Championship (second round of the FedExCup Playoffs). He hit the ground running this season with a T8 at The Sentry 2025. 

BET 1.25u on Sam Burns (+1600) to profit 20u 

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Ben Griffin (+6000) 

In his two rounds at the Stadium Course last year, Griffin carded a 64 and 66. That 7-under per-round average would put Griffin at -28, one shot off Dunlap’s winning score of -29. Griffin led the 2024 AmEx field in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting en route to a T9 with a -24. 

DataGolf.com loves Griffin, ranking 41st, whereas he is 68th in the Official World Golf Rankings. His weak driving has held Griffin back from winning on TOUR. Yet, driving isn’t important in the AmEx since it’s a pro-am and the rough alongside the fairway is less penal, so amateurs don’t take eight-plus hours to finish a round. 

Otherwise, Griffin’s short game and iron play are on point. He was 34th in SG: Approach (APP) on TOUR last season and 23rd in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG). As long as Griffin doesn’t go swimming, he should be in the mix Sunday. 

BET 0.33u on Ben Griffin (+6000) to profit 20u 

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Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000)

Thorbjornsen was on my 2025 Sony Open betting card, but he withdrew before teeing off in the first round, so the sportsbook voided my bet. Everything I wrote last week still applies here. The Stanford Cardinal has the talent to win a major with the ball striking to tear the Stadium Course apart. 

Over the last 60 rounds, which encompasses most of his PGA TOUR career, Thorbjornsen leads this field in birdie-or-better (BoB rate) and ranks sixth in SG: ARG, according to BetTheNumber.com. The Stadium Course has small greens, so his solid short game is useful here. 

His second-best finish on the PGA Tour was fourth at the 2022 Travelers when he was an amateur. The Travelers is played at TPC River Highlands, which Dye also designed. Thorbjornsen’s best start on TOUR was a T2 at the 2024 John Deere Classic, another "birdie-fest", and he finished with a -29. 

BET 0.25u on Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000) to profit 20u 

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Matti Schmid (+17500)

This is the "random dart" I’m throwing in the 2024 AmEx. Dunlap became the first amateur since Phil Mickelson in 1991 to win a PGA TOUR event last year, and he had +30000 odds pre-tournament. Dunlap was the fourth golfer with +15000 odds or higher to win the AmEx since 2019. 

Schmid was T3 with a -26 in his first AmEx two years ago. He missed the 54-hole cut at last year’s AmEx but shot a -9, so it’s not like he was horrible. The AmEx is a "pitch-and-putt" contest and Schmid has gained strokes on APP and putting in both of his starts in La Quinta. 

Matti Schmid tees off on the 11th hole at La Quinta Country Club during The American Express 2023. (Photo credit: Jay Calderon/The Desert Sun-USA TODAY NETWORK)

The German Olympian has played in 11 PGA TOUR events at crossover courses to Pete Dye’s Stadium Course. According to DataGolf.com, Schmid has gained strokes on APP in nine of them and with his putter in six with one being even in SG: Putting. One of those events was the Shriners Children's Open this past fall, where Schmid was T3. 

BET 0.11u on Matti Schmid (+17500) to profit 20u 

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Finishing Position Bets 

Make placement bets at BetMGM, FanDuel, or DraftKings. BetMGM never applies ‘dead heat’ rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for The American Express 2025. 

Tom Hoge Top-20 at FanDuel (+260): 0.5u to win 1.3u

Hoge will forever be one of "my guys" after he cashed me a +5000 bet by winning at Pebble Beach in 2022. The AmEx is another pro-am, and these events are unique because they are long rounds with a social component. Hoge was T17 in last year's AmEx, second in 2022, and T6 in 2020. Plus, he has several strong finishes in similar events, such as T3 at the 2024 Travelers and T3 at THE PLAYERS in 2023. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top-20 at FanDuel (+260): 0.5u to win 1.3u 

Bezuidenhout doesn't have the driving power to compete at most PGA TOUR venues, but that doesn't matter in La Quinta. However, he was 20th in SG: Putting on TOUR last season, and finished second at the 2024 AmEx and T11 here two years ago. The South African had 12 top-25 finishes in 23 starts last year, including a T13 in THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye course. 

Harry Hall Top-20 at DraftKings (+175): 0.75u to win 1.31u  

The Englishman has been on fire lately. Hall has five straight top-10 finishes, including T9 at the Shriners in the fall of 2024, T8 at The Sentry 2025, and T10 at last week’s Sony Open, cashing a top-20 wager for me. He got his first PGA TOUR victory, the ISCO Championship in July, an alternate event to the 152nd Open. 

Low-key, Hall has been one of the best putters in the world since this summer. Per DataGolf.com, Hall has gained strokes putting in 14 consecutive international events with shot-link data. Ultimately, the AmEx is a glorified putting contest, and Hall is lights-out on the greens. 

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The American Express 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Sam Burns

I have a heavy influence here despite saying that if my girlfriend's "one-and-done" pick in the Sony Open (Taylor Pendrith) last week did better than mine (Austin Eckroat), which happened, then she would get the final decision this week. My biggest hesitation about using Burns in the AmEx is my belief that he could win his first major or "signature event" this season. 

Anyway, as my lady said on our golf gambling date Tuesday: "We just need to get on the board" in the Race for the Mayo Cup 2025 thanks to Eckroat earning us jack sh*t by missing the cut at the Sony Open. She's right and Burns should have the shortest odds to win the 2025 AmEx given his "win equity", current form, and event history. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.