Alabama Shouldn't Be Dogs Against Missouri

Alabama vs. Missouri, 9:00 ET

I went 2-0 on Monday and was feeling really good about myself. Then like a swift kick to the groin, Tuesday rolled around and I dropped both of my plays last night. 2-0 one day, 0-2 the next. All last week was pretty much nothing but average, and now we might be in the same boat unless I am going to grab a bunch of wins in a row. Tonight we have one matchup between ranked teams and it falls between Alabama and Missouri. 

Alabama has been one of the best teams in the country this season with a strong 21-4 record and they have been great even in SEC play. I've said this before and I'll probably say it multiple more times but the SEC has been one of the best, or the best, conference in all of college basketball. Alabama is 10-2 entering tonight's game with their two losses in conference play coming against Ole Miss and Auburn. Both of those losses came at home, and neither were very close. Their other two losses were against Purdue and Oregon, both of those came in a road environment with Purdue being a true road game and Oregon being a neutral court loss. I wouldn't consider Oregon or Ole Miss better teams. I probably wouldn't say that Purdue is a better team, but that loss came early in the season, so I suppose I can say that maybe they were closer teams at that point than they are currently. Their most recent game was against Auburn and they lost that game on Saturday. It was a game we grabbed a win in as the teams combined to score 179 points and we had the over. They have yet to lose back-to-back games this season and I have no reason to believe they will here. Against SEC opponents on the road, they have won games by 20, 6, 5, 4, 4, and 23. So either a complete blowout, or a nail-biter. What does Missouri have to offer? 

Texas A&M Aggies forward Pharrel Payne blocking Missouri Tigers guard Tony Perkins at Mizzou Arena. (Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)

Missouri hasn't received as much attention as other teams in the SEC or in general, but they are quietly putting together a very good season. They are 19-6 for the year, but are 8-4 in conference play. Their losses against SEC opponents have come against Auburn, Texas, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Three of those losses, though, have come on the road. They've done a pretty good job of protecting their home court with wins over LSU, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma at home. Some of those wins have been very convincing as well. Their other two losses were against Illinois on a neutral court, and at Memphis. The only home loss this season was by three points. The Missouri team is interesting because they involve a deep rotation, but don't have anyone that is a true dominant scorer the way that Mark Sears is for Alabama. They have 11 different players averaging 10 or more minutes per game and another two that have gotten five or more minutes in at least 13 games. A deep rotation can often help with keeping guys fresh and helping with defense. 

This is a strange Missouri team in that they are able to send so many guys out there, but when you need to win against a good team, you need the best team on the floor. I'm not overly confident that they will have the better squad. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that Alabama is a dog on the road here. I think they should be a small favorite. I'm going to back Alabama to win this game at +105. I don't really see the spread being a factor here since it is just 1.5 so it isn't worth it to play it for me. 

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