AL Will Crown A New MVP, Who Will It Be?

For the past five years or so, there have been two guys at the top of the list every single time the American League MVP award odds come out. Now, one of those guys is no longer in the American League, and the other is lower than I can ever remember to start a season. Yes, Shohei Ohtani is on the Dodgers now and out of the AL, but Mike Trout is still there, although he is +2000 now. There was a year where he was +200 at the start of the season. Let's take a look at some of the leaders and long shots and see how we should bet the AL MVP race. 

Aaron Judge is the current frontrunner for the award this year. Judge has already put two of those awards in his trophy case, winning in 2017 and 2022. He even had a chance last season before injuries derailed his campaign. Last year he ended with 37 home runs, 75 RBIS, and 88 walks in 106 games. Those are solid numbers for the majority of players, but for Judge, it ended up being a bit of a down year. The problem I have here is that he had a few issues last season, but one of the bigger was his toe. He recently said he will need maintenance on it for the rest of his career. I don't want to rush to the window betting on a guy at +550 when he says he isn't 100% going into the season. 

His new teammate, Juan Soto, is the second favorite. Soto is one of the more talented players in baseball and has all the potential in the world to win the award. He has played in Washington and San Diego, which are both good markets, but not quite the level of New York. That should catapult him into the forefront of the conversation anyway. If he does what he did last year, he should at least be a finalist for the award. Last season, he ended up with a .275 average, 35 home runs, and 109 RBIs. The Padres were terrible and a big disappointment (so were the Yankees) but if Soto can come into this team and replicate the season, I think he has a legitimate shot to win the award. He also got off to a terrible start, so a hot start would push him up quite a bit. He's +650, but I like his odds much more than Judge. 

Last season Corey Seager ended up in second place, and he looked like one of the best players in baseball. He was a monster for the Rangers on their march to a World Series title. Seager hit .327, 33 home runs, 96 RBIs and had a 1.013 OPS. It was his best season of his career, but one that he probably can replicate. He's put up similar numbers in previous seasons, but not all of them in one year. The Rangers should still be a good team and he will be the face of it, with more attention after the win from last year. At 10:1, I'm not quite sure he is the best option for you to bet on, but I do think he has a reasonable chance. 

Some other players to consider: Yordan Alvarez might be safer to just hit the most homers in the MLB. I'm not sure I think he will get the votes for MVP. Julio Rodriguez finished fourth in voting last season. He had a good year for the Mariners, better than the year he won Rookie of the Year, but he did strikeout 30 more times. I could see him making a push once again as the sophomore slump didn't hit him. Adley Rutschman plays a tough position and led one of the best teams in baseball last season. The Orioles are not a big market team, but they play in the toughest division in baseball (argue if you want, to me it is this one or maybe the AL West). If he takes another step forward and gets to .300 with 25 homers, 100 RBIs, and the Orioles in the division again, he has a legitimate chance. I think a lot has to go right here though so I'd stay off of it. 

A couple of longshots worth considering: Trout, Randy Arozarena, and Adolis Garcia. Trout has proven he is the best player in baseball when he is healthy. The problem is that he is never healthy. Still, the best player in baseball and one that has been viewed as a Hall of Famer at +2000 is worthwhile. I can't pass this up to be honest. Even if 95% of me feels like it is a losing ticket. Randy Arozarena is now the best player on a competitive team. The Rays should make the playoffs once again, and Arozarena has shown that he can be the focal point of the offense. His average has gone down each of the past two seasons, and his power really hasn't changed much, so he needs to take a step forward, and without Wander Franco the chances are slim, but at +10000 I think there is value here. Finally, Garcia was ridiculous in the playoffs last year and he flew a bit under the radar in the regular season. He hit .245 with 39 home runs and 107 RBIs. Maybe he finally broke out of his shell, and now at 30 he might be on the cusp of his best seasons. He needs to get the average up, but if you compare his odds with Alvarez, he isn't that far off and you're getting way better value on Garcia. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024