AFC Playoff Value Bets and Breakdown

It isn't exactly easy to explain this in one paragraph or potentially a full article, but I'm happy to chat about it on Twitter if you have questions or anything. Here's what I'm getting at - some future bets are not always about winning, but can be good value or provide an opportunity to hedge later on down the line. What I'm looking for here is value or an opportunity to hedge down the line on a ticket we put together. Last year I had the Bengals getting to the Super Bowl and we cashed that ticked in addition to specific game plays. I am searching for something similar here.

If you look at the lines, the books are basically saying it will be Kansas City vs. Buffalo for the AFC Championship game. I don't know that I can fully count out the Bengals as a possibility. I also am not certain that you can count out the Chargers to make the game either. That leaves us with the Ravens, Jaguars, and Dolphins as teams we probably can eliminate, but before we do that, let's take a look at their odds to make the Super Bowl. The Ravens are +1800, Jaguars are +2000, and the Dolphins are +3000. Let's count out the Dolphins because I think without Tua Tagovailoa they won't beat the Bills. The Jaguars could beat the Chargers in a home game. If they do that and the Ravens lose, they then take on the Chiefs, I don't personally see them being able to beat the Chiefs, and if you think they will, just bet them on the moneyline at +600 or whatever it will be if they play. The Ravens are interesting because if they win and the Dolphins lose, they need to go through Kansas City due to reseeding. I do think that Lamar Jackson could pull it off. There is no guarantee that Jackson plays against the Bengals though. So, unfortunately, I don't think there is a reason to play any of those because two have quarterback question marks and Jacksonville is not good enough yet.

I'm turning now to AFC Conference Finalists - I do think there is a bit of value here in the Bills vs. Chargers at +850. That would essentially be the Chargers taking down the Jaguars, which I think happens, and then beating the Chiefs, a team they usually play fairly well. So we are at +850 for them to play the Bills and if you want the other option of them playing the Bengals, you could grab that at +1400. I do think we have a bit of certainty that the Bills or Bengals are going to play the other side. Both of them may get a matchup against a team that doesn't have their starting quarterback at the helm. That's why I'm thinking to take the Chargers. There isn't much value in the Bengals or Bills against the Chiefs. If I had to take one it would be Bengals vs. Chiefs at +330.

Unfortunately for us, those are about the only plays that have true value in my opinion. There are some options that we can look at for when people might be eliminated. For example, if you think the Chiefs make the championship game but not the Super Bowl, you can take them to lose in the Conference Championship Game at +150. If you get lucky, and they are the underdog against the Bills or something you might be able to grab the Chiefs at +120 and guarantee profit - this is where that hedging or value comes into play. The Bills are +350 to lose in the Championship game. If they get there, you can bet 2u on them to win and you're going to get some profit.

Here is how I'd play these options shared:

The others are options to pursue, but just like the NFC, I'm probably not risking more than 1.5u total on those three plays and 1u of that would go to the Bills losing in the Conference Championship.

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