AFC East 2023 Gambling Forecast: Jets, Bills Will Get it Done; Expect Patriots To Sink

Since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots in 2020, the Buffalo Bills have won three straight AFC East titles. The Bills coasted to that divisional three-peat but the AFC East is tougher this year. Aaron Rodgers complained his way to the New York Jets. And the Miami Dolphins were two Tua Tagovailoa concussions away from being a contender in the AFC.

AFC East

Odds to win the AFC East in 2023 for the Bills, NY Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots from DraftKings as of August 22nd.

AFC East 2023 projected standings

LISTEN: Dan Zaksheske and Geoff Clark Break Down The AFC and NFC East On The Latest Episode of “OutKick Bets”

Buffalo Bills

After a third consecutive divisional crown, Buffalo came up short again in the playoffs. The Bills eked past a Tua-less Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card round before getting pistol-whipped by the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round.

Maybe the Damar Hamlin incident vs. the Bengals in Week 17 left the Bills shook. Or perhaps they aren't built for the postseason. Either way, 2023 is huge for Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel shakes hands with Bills coach Sean McDermott prior to an AFC East showdown at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Former Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier left this offseason once McDermott informed Frazier he'd be taking over defensive play-calling duties. LB Tremaine Edmunds, QB of Buffalo's defense for the previous five years, signed with the Chicago Bears.

Aside from adding depth to their defensive line and signing an offensive line starter, the Bills were relatively quiet in free agency. Instead, Buffalo is relying on MVP-favorite Josh Allen minimizing turnovers and the defense being healthier.

Buffalo's odds

Allen is good enough for 10 wins by himself. Last year, Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded Allen the 3rd-best QB in football. Allen was 2nd in QBR and 3rd in expected points added (EPA) per play + completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).

Bills QB Josh Allen rolls out vs. the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. (Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)

His No. 1 target — WR Stefon Diggs — ranked 5th in yards per route run and 1st in QB Rating when targeted, according to PFF. Diggs had a 108-1429-11 season and lines up all over the place for Buffalo.

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But, the Bills are thin at playmakers outside of Allen and Diggs. Bills No. 2 WR Gabe Davis didn't have the breakout season NFL talking heads projected him for in 2022. Plus, Buffalo's offensive line is a question mark.

Three of Buffalo's listed offensive line starters had a below-average grade last season, per PFF, and the other is a rookie. If the Bills don't improve in the trenches this season, it puts more pressure on Allen's shoulders.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa throws the ball over Bills pass rusher Von Miller at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Eric Espada/Getty Images)

That said, their chances for the AFC's 1-seed and a 4th consecutive AFC East relies on McDermott coaching up the defense. Buffalo's pass rush fell off a cliff in 2022 when Von Miller went out with an injury.

Yet the Bills still have a top-notch secondary. Buffalo CB Tre'Davious White missed most of 2022 with an injury and S Micah Hyde sustained a season-ending injury in Week 2 last season.

'Unlimited bankroll' bet for the 2023 Bills

Part of me wants to fade Buffalo in 2023. The Bills go from playing the 20th-toughest schedule in 2022 to the 2nd-toughest this season, according to NFL handicapper Clevta's projections.

But, even though last year was a disappointment, the Bills were still 4th in net EPA/play and 3rd in net yards per play (YPP). Buffalo's three regular-season losses in 2022 were by a combined eight points.

Furthermore, the Bills feel like a Peyton Manning-led Indianapolis Colts team from back in the day. Meaning, there is a softness about Buffalo. It's a dome-team that plays in a snow globe in the winter.

Bills QB Josh Allen scrambles past New York Jets CB Sauce Gardner at Highmark Stadium. (Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)

My point is I'd rather fade the Bills when they are playing elite competition or good defenses. Between Allen, McDermott, Buffalo's defense and these sharp season-long odds, there just isn't a profitable way to bet Bills futures.

The only thing that stands out is JOSH ALLEN OVER 550.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110) at DraftKings. Allen has rushed for more than 600 yards in three of his five career seasons including two straight.

PFF gave Allen the highest rushing grade among QBs last season. Allen has averaged at least 6.1 yards per rush in back-to-back seasons. Because Buffalo's schedule is more difficult in 2023, the Bills will be in tighter games and need Allen to go "hero mode".

New York Jets

Maybe I've been watching too much Hard Knocks on HBO but I love the Jets this season. They are my pick to win the AFC East in 2023 (+270) and the trade for Rodgers will work out. At least in year one.

Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay was the NFL's worst kept secret. After back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020-21, Rodgers mailed it in last season. He was mad the Packers traded Davante Adams because they couldn't afford him after extending Rodgers' contract.

Actor Jerry Ferrara, Jets QB Aaron Rodgers and CB Sauce Gardner and former New York Ranger Henrik Lundqvist sits courtside during the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

Well, Rodgers got his wish and now he can be the man in the Big Apple. And he is eating it up. We saw Rodgers at New York Knicks and Rangers playoff games this summer. He did the NY media tour. You know Rodgers is loving the attention.

The Jets accommodated Rodgers by hiring a few of his friends. Rodgers brought WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb with him from Green Bay. Former Packers offensive coordinator and Denver Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett joined New York's coaching staff.

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Hackett's only season in Denver was a disaster. But, Hackett was Rodgers' offensive coordinator for both of his MVP seasons in 2021-22. And the best thing the Jets can do is make Rodgers happy.

I cannot overstate how big of a boost Rodgers is for New York's QB situation. PFF graded Wilson the worst QB in the NFL last year among 39 qualifiers. But, Wilson was 5-4 last year whereas Flacco and White were both 1-3.

Aaron Rodgers participates in drills during the New York Jets Training Camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

Every team has a weakness and New York's is the offensive line. Given the other strong defenses in the AFC East, the Jets are doomed if they cannot keep Rodgers upright. But, Rodgers can hide New York's poor offensive line by getting rid of the ball fast and making pre-snap adjustments.

Regardless, the Jets go from a catastrophe under center to a future 1st-ballot Hall of Famer. Now that Tom Brady retired, Rodgers is the eldest statesman in the NFL. Rodgers wants to duplicate what Brady did for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in New York.

NYJ's odds

Like Brady the Bucs, Rodgers is joining a team with a loaded defense. In fact, I project New York to have the best defense in the NFL this season. My favorite thing about the Jets is they can pressure the QB without sending extra men.

New York had the lowest blitz rate in the league last year and the 3rd-highest pressure rate. The Jets are stacked with pass rushers including All-Pro DT Quinnen Williams and two 2022-23 1st-round draft picks at edge rusher.

Jets CB Sauce Gardner does his handshake with Rodgers before a preseason game vs. the Buccaneers at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

However, the best player on New York's defense is cornerback, and 2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sauce Gardner. PFF graded Gardner the best cornerback in the NFL last year.

Gardner and Jets CBs D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II formed the best cornerback room last season. New York's defense had the highest pass coverage grade in 2022, according to PFF.

Unless New York's defense gets hammered with cluster-injuries, the Jets will have a top-five defense in the NFL, at-worst. After factoring in schedule, I project New York to have the 2nd-best defense in the NFL this season behind the San Francisco 49ers.

'Unlimited bankroll' bet for the 2023 Jets

New York has a Davante Adam-type weapon for Rodgers to work with in 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, WR Garrett Wilson. The chemistry Rodgers and Adam had was special but Wilson is a stud.

Last season, Wilson caught 83 balls for 1,103 receiving yards and 4 TDs from current Jets backup QBs Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler and former backup New York QBs Joe Flacco and Mike White.

Jets WR Garrett Wilson goes up for a one-hand catch against the Jacksonville Jaguars at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Since Wilson is by far Rodgers' best WR and we saw how much Rodgers targeted Adams in Green Bay, the Jets' season-long bets with the most value are Wilson's futures.

I'm placing a few "pizza bets" on Jets WR GARRETT WILSON TO LEAD THE NFL IN TD CATCHES (+2200), RECEPTIONS (+2500), and RECEIVING YARDS (+1800) at DraftKings.

Miami Dolphins

A lot of people consider Miami's 2022 campaign a success because the Dolphins returned to the playoffs in McDaniel's 1st season. But, they had the same record last year (9-8) as the year prior.

Obviously, Tua's concussion issues played a large role in Miami's mid-season struggles and eventual playoff-demise. However, the league started to figure out Tua and McDaniel as the season progressed.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa throws the ball as Patriots DT Christian Barmore approaches at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (ANDRES LEIVA/THE PALM BEACH POST /USA TODAY NETWORK)

San Francisco started a 5-game losing skid for the Dolphins by housing them 33-17 in Week 13 even after former 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo went out with an injury. Miami went from 8-3 to 8-8 and needed to beat the Jets in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth.

The Dolphins lost Tua again to a concussion in Miami's Week 16 loss on Christmas to the Packers. This concussion turned out to be a season-ending injury for Tua. The Bills beat the Dolphins 34-31 in the AFC wild card round.

Miami's odds

Reportedly, Tua took jiu-jitsu this offseason to learn how to fall. Miami is banking on good injury-luck for Tua because it made no upgrades to its weak offensive line this offseason. Instead, the Dolphins bolstered their defense.

They hired defensive mastermind Vic Fangio to be the defensive coordinator and traded for lock-down CB Jalen Ramsey. Fangio has a ton of talent to work with in Miami but Ramsey suffered an injury that will keep him out until at least December.

Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey works out during training camp at Baptist Health Training Facility in Florida. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

The loss of Ramsey is major for the Dolphins. In 2022, Miami was 26th in dropback EPA/play. Both starting CBs, Noah Igbinoghene and Xavien Howard, played below replacement-level last year, per PFF.

Miami's front-seven has potential to be special. Dolphins defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Jaelen Phillips both had top-10 grades in 2022, according to PFF. And they added pass rusher Bradley Chubb via trade last year.

'Unlimited bankroll' bet for the 2023 Dolphins

Call it a hunch but I got Miami underperforming regular-season expectations this season and going UNDER 9.5 WINS (-115). This is a "pick" and not a bet because I prefer chunkier payouts for NFL season-long futures.

Also, Under 7.5-alternate wins for the Dolphins — two fewer than regular win total — is only +230 when it’s +300 for a lot of other teams. I.e. the market knows a down-year in 2023 is in the cards for Miami.

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Tua's concussion issues and Miami's performance in road games last season are concerning. Between his size and fragility, Tua is more likely to get hurt. Plus, the Dolphins were 3-6 on road games in 2022 with a -5.7 point-per-game (PPG) margin.

New England Patriots

There are too many good AFC teams and someone has to lose games. Last season, the Patriots finished 8-9 vs. an 8.5-win total. The Patriots have a bottom-five QB in the NFL with below-average weapons, the toughest schedule in the league (per Warren Sharp), and an overrated defense.

Patriots QB Mac Jones regressed heavily from a standout rookie season in 2021. Jones had no game-winning drives or 4th-quarter comebacks last year. The Patriots were dead-last in red-zone TD-rate and 27th in 3rd-down conversion rate in 2022.

Patriots QB Mac Jones stumbles vs. the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Technically, the Patriots don't have a No. 1 WR for Jones to rely on. New England WRs DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne are all solid but none are game-breakers.

New England's odds

On top of that, New England's defense punched down last season. The Patriots beat a bunch of backup QBs and gave up 27.0 PPG as underdogs in 2022. Going into 2023, New England is projected to be an underdog in 14 games.

First-year Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is a huge upgrade from Matt Patricia. However, O'Brien isn't throwing the passes and New England doesn't have a lot of talent on offense.

The Patriots need their defense to be play better than last year to make up for the offense. They were 3rd in defensive turnover EPA last season, per RBSDM.com. Unfortunately for New England, that's not a sticky metric.

'Unlimited bankroll' bet for the 2023 Patriots

My best bet in the 2023 AFC East is PATRIOTS TO HAVE THE FEWEST WINS IN THE NFL (+1500) at DraftKings.