Adding to The Genesis Invitational 2023 Bet Slip Following The Cut
The 1st two rounds of the 2023 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club are almost in the books. We at least have a pretty good idea of who will make the 36-hole cut.
The cut-line is currently 1-over par with 2nd-round play set to resume Saturday at 10:10 a.m. ET. But, the big story is alpha, and icon, Tiger Woods will be playing on the weekend.
Tiger struggled to hit a putt Friday, finishing 3-over par in the 2nd round and leaving him on the 1-over cut-line through 36 holes.
Along with the other 98% of DraftKings bettors who took “Tiger Woods to make the cut” at +150, I head into the weekend at Genesis with a surplus. Former Genesis Invitational champion, Max Homa, is the leader through two rounds at 10-under par.
Here are the updated odds of the Genesis Invitational for the top-10 favorites at DraftKings as of Saturday morning:
My Genesis Invitational bet slip through two rounds (+0.375 units)
Genesis Invitational Bets Added Post-Cut
Shane Lowry to Win (+11000) & Top-10 (+260)
I added Lowry to last week’s Waste Management (WM) Phoenix Open bet slip via Twitter and it cost me when Lowry missed the cut.
Lowry popped on my Genesis model this week and I didn’t have the stomach to back him a 2nd straight week.
However, I’m jumping in now with a 0.125-unit (u) sprinkle on Lowry to win outright at +11000 and hitting him with a half-unit bet to place Top-10 (+260).
Through two rounds at the Genesis, Lowry is picking up strokes in all five major golf metrics — Approach (APP), Tee-to-Green (T2G), Off-the-Tee, Putting, and Around-the-Green — per DataGolf.com.
Riviera Country Club — the host course for the Genesis — tests a golfer’s full skill set and could be the course for future U.S. Opens.
Lowry averages +0.80 Strokes Gained (SG) per round on courses with difficult scoring conditions and is the 2019 British Open Champion Golfer of the Year.
He was 7th on my stats model pre-tournament as well. Lowry is 11th in this field for SG: APP, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in Par 5 Efficiency: 450-500, and 11th in Scrambling.
With all the heavy hitters atop the Genesis odds board, it’s hard getting to the window with someone unproven. Lowry is a golfer with the game to play his way back into contention on the weekend. At the minimum, Lowry can backdoor a top-10 for us.
Viktor Hovland (1u: -105) > Justin Thomas in Round 3
Aside from last week's WM Phoenix Open, Hovland is playing better than Thomas recently. Over their last 24 rounds, Hovland ranks 17th in this field for total SG and Thomas ranks 44th.
Hovland finished T4 at last year's Genesis Invitational and T5 in 2021. Hovland is gaining strokes in the five most important aspects of golf through two rounds at the Genesis.
Thomas is -0.94 SG: APP and Hovland is gaining nearly a full stroke on Thomas T2G (1.37-0.44) through two rounds at Riviera.
Hovland's best putting surface is Poa grass, which makes up the greens at Riviera. Thomas ranks 70th in this field for SG: Putting on Poa, and SG: Putting on firm and fast greens, over the last 24 rounds.
Pre-Flop Genesis Invitational 2023 Bets
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