Add These 3 NBA Bets To Your Monday Night Football Action
On one hand, I'll be locked into the Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night Football matchup. On the other, I'm supplementing my NFL action with a couple of NBA games Monday. I split my two looks Sunday. My NBA record is 34-34 and my bankroll is -4.22 units (u). But, I'm beginning my comeback with these ...
NBA Monday Best Bets
New York Knicks (+3) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
These teams split their two meetings straight up (SU) and against the (ATS) last season with the road teams winning and covering both. New York has won three straight and six of its past seven games (6-1 ATS over that span).
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in the last nine including a 121-120 win at the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday. But, the Timberwolves are only 1-3 ATS in their last four games and return home Monday after a 4-day road trip.
Typically, NBA teams are sluggish in their 1st game back from a road stand. DunksAndThrees.com adjusts for strength of schedule and that website says NYK is 5th in net rating and Minnesota is 6th.
Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns contests a New York Knicks wing Julius Randle 3-pointer at Target Center in Minneapolis. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Also, the Knicks are a better 3-point shooting team and usually win the battle of possessions. They are +1.3 in made 3-pointers per game whereas the T-Wolves are -0.9. New York averages a higher rate of “wide-open” 3-point attempts. Plus, the Knicks have higher turnover and rebounding rates on both ends of the floor.
Finally, as of 10 a.m. ET Monday morning, nearly 70% of the betting action is on the T-Wolves, per Pregame.com. However, the sharper sportsbooks, Betcris and Bookmaker, make Minnesota’s spread -2.5 so professionals are taking a position on NYK.
My prediction: Knicks 108, Timberwolves 105
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast With Geoff Clark
Sacramento Kings (-1) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
Situationally, these teams are in similar spots. Both are playing their 3rd game in four nights and this is the 1st of a Kings-Pelicans 2-game head-to-head. Sacramento is 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) and New Orleans is in the 5th of its 6-game home stand.
The Kings are on a 6-game winning streak (5-1 ATS in those outings). While the Pelicans are 2-4 SU over their last six but 3-2-1 ATS. But, Sacramento PG De'Aaron Fox has played the last four games after missing five games from Nov. 1-10.
Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox shoots a fadeaway over Pelicans SF Naji Marshall at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
With Fox on the floor, the Kings are outscoring opponents by 16.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, per CTG. Sacramento won two of three meetings with New Orleans last season and the one the Kings lost they were without Fox. They are 6-1 SU when Fox plays this season.
Also, Sacramento is both a better 3-point shooting team and in the battle of possessions. Over the last six games, the Kings rank 4th or better in "wide-open" 3-point attempt rate on both ends of the floor. NOLA is 25th or worse in both. Sactown has better turnover and rebounding rates than NOLA as well.
My prediction: Kings 120, Pelicans 116
PS NBA Player Prop for Monday
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
Bulls big Nikola Vucevic has faced Miami 11 times since getting traded to Chicago in 2021. He's scored more than 15 points in just eight of those games. This is the 2nd of a Heat-Bulls B2B. Chicago won the 1st 102-97 Saturday but Heat big Bam Adebayo locked Vucevic up.
Bam held Vucevic to just 2 points on 1-for-5 shooting Saturday. Adebayo is the best defensive player in the NBA so it makes sense Vucevic struggles against Miami.
Bulls C Nikola Vucevic shoots over Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo at United Center in Chicago. (David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)
According to CTG, Vucevic grades in the 6% of all NBA bigs in points per shot attempt. A majority of Vucevic's shots come in the mid-range. But, Miami is 2nd in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range jumpers.
Finally, Chicago plays bad offense and Vucevic is unable to create his own offense. The Bulls average the 2nd-fewest assists per game in the NBA and ranks 26th in half-court offensive efficiency, per CTG.