Add 'Denver Broncos -3.5' Vs. Washington Commanders To Your NFL Week 2 Bet Slip
These Denver Broncos (0-1) Week 2 odds for when they host the Washington Commanders (1-0) are too good to pass up. As of Friday, Sept. 15th, the Broncos are laying 3-and-the-hook (-3.5) to the Commanders. The same team that didn't cover against a Cardinals team that are at the bottom of everyone's power rankings.
No one has an appetite to bet Denver and, typically, the least popular teams are the most profitable. In Week 1 of the Circa Million V NFL handicapping contest, the Broncos were the 4th-least select team behind the Chiefs, Cardinals, Lions, and Panthers.
Detroit and KC played Thursday, Sept. 7 in the NFL Kickoff Game. Since you have to enter all five picks for the contest at once, players rarely submit Thursdays.
Teams that play on Thursdays are usually the two lowest teams picked in the contest, so it makes sense for the Chiefs and Lions to be down there. The Panthers had a rookie QB with a new head coach and the Cardinals are expected to have the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
SEAN PAYTON FAILS SURPRISE ONSIDE KICK IN FIRST MINUTE AS BRONCOS HEAD COACH
However, the Broncos just hired Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton and still have Russell Wilson. Granted, Wilson sucked last year and is one of the least popular QBs in the NFL.
Broncos QB Russell Wilson talks to head coach Sean Payton vs. the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field At Mile High in Denver. (Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
But, Wilson bouncing back in Payton’s offense wouldn’t be the craziest thing to happen in the NFL this year. Last week, Wilson had the 4th-best EPA/play + CPOE composite. That stat in layman’s terms is “scoring points and throwing WRs open”.
Washington QB Sam Howell on the other hand ranked 23rd in EPA/play + CPOE in Week 1. This was against a mediocre, at-best, Arizona defense. Denver had one of the best defenses in the NFL last year and playmakers on all three levels.
SAM HOWELL KNOCKED INTO NEXT WEEK ON LATE HIT, REF GOES DOWN TOO & FISTS FLY IN CARDINALS-COMMANDERS GAME
Cardinals defensive linemen Jalen Thompson sacks Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Broncos could cover vs. the Commanders without Wilson playing a good game. Entering the regular season, Denver had an 8.5-win total and Washington, 6.5 wins.
The Broncos’ home-field advantage is worth at least 3 points in this spot. They play at altitude, which is generally harder earlier in the season since players aren’t in “mid-season form” yet. Denver being expected to win two more games heading into the season has to be worth another 3-4 points.
Commanders at Broncos Week 2 Odds (PointBet)
This Broncos -3.5 spread might be an overreaction to their 17-16 home loss to the Raiders in Week 1. It wouldn’t be shocking if Las Vegas turned out to be a solid team this year.
Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been to a Super Bowl. Jimmy G led the NFL in EPA/play + CPOE last week. Las Vegas WR Davante Adams, RB Josh Jacobs, and pass rusher Maxx Crosby are three of the best in their respective positions.
Broncos CB Pat Surtain II breaks up a pass intended for Raiders WR Davante Adams at Empower Field at Mile High. (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Washington didn’t cover in a 20-16 win at home vs. Arizona last week either. But, in contrast to the Raiders, I’d be floored if the Cardinals had a winning record in 2023. All the NFL mock drafters are predicting Arizona will have the 1st pick in the upcoming draft.
Finally, I had an epiphany about this Denver -3.5 spread Thursday afternoon. My 1st note for this game earlier this week was "F*** these teams | Pass".
That said, the Broncos are the home team and clearly have more upside this season. If Denver doesn't cover Sunday, it'll be on my ban list for the rest of the season.