ACC Tournament Lock: Bet The 'Dog In Virginia Tech-NC State

The 11-seed Virginia Tech Hokies clash with 7-seed NC State Wolfpack in the 2nd round of the 2023 ACC Conference Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET and the game airs on ESPN 2.

Virginia Tech is the reigning ACC Tournament champions and advanced to the 2nd round thanks to a 67-64 win over 14-seed Notre Dame Tuesday. But, the Hokies failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites.

NC State F D.J. Burns Jr. and G Jarkel Joiner line up along the paint during a free-throw attempt with Virginia Tech F Justyn Mutts during a game at Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Virginia. (Ryan Hunt/Getty Images)

The Wolfpack beat the Hokies 73-69 as 6.5-point road underdogs in their only regular-season meeting this year on Jan. 7. NC State out-performed VT in three of the "four factors" and had two players score 20+ points.

The Hokies were 19-13 straight up (SU) during the regular season, 13-19 against the spread (ATS), 18-14 Over/Under (O/U). NC State was 22-9 SU, 15-14-1 ATS, and 15-15-1 O/U.

Virginia Tech-NC State Betting Board (DraftKings Sportsbook)

According to Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the action in the consensus betting market is backing NC State, which is gambling behavior that I can reverse engineer.

In NC State's win over Virginia Tech earlier this season, the Wolfpack were missing leading rebounder and 2nd-best player by offensive rating, PF Jack Clark, who is back for the ACC tourney.

Furthermore, all the college basketball nerd rank NC State a lot higher than VT. The Wolfpack has better net efficiency better than the Hokies per Ken Pom, Jeff Sagarin, ESPN's BPI, and Bart Torvik.

NC State ranks higher than Virginia Tech by at least 18 spots, according to those nerds. But, most recreational college basketball bettors ramp it up come March Madness and use this information to make bets.

It appears to me all the pro-Wolfpack love to cover the spread vs. the Hokies is group-think. A profitable starting point for sports bettors is a "contrarian mindset".

Virginia Tech Hokies SG Hunter Cattoor shoots a mid-range jumper vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. (David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

NC State has a terrible shot profile. Per Bart Torvik, the Wolfpack attempt the 2nd-fewest "close" 2-point field goals in the ACC. They attempt the 5th-most "far" 2-pointers and allows the 5th-most dunks on defense.

VT's lower seed is actually a plus in this scenario. By playing Tuesday in this gym, the Hokies got used to the unfamiliar site lines whereas the Wolfpack still need to.

With that in mind, five of the last six teams that played in the opening round of the ACC tourney covered the spread in their 2nd-round games.

Finally, Virginia Tech has several of the same players from last year's ACC tourney-winning squad. The Hokies have appeared in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. So VT has an edge in experience.

BET: Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings in the 2nd round of the 2023 ACC Conference Tournament

The Virginia Tech Hokies' odds vs. the NC State Wolfpack in the 2023 ACC Conference Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, March 8th.