Aaron Rodgers Trade To Jets Was Already Baked Into New York's Super Bowl Odds

The Green Bay Packers granted QB Aaron Rodgers the trade to the New York Jets on Monday. It was the same deal he went on the Pat McAfee Show babbling about a month or so ago. While the trade is now official, it isn't exactly new news for the sportsbooks.

Once Rodgers publicly admitted to requesting a trade, oddsmakers adjusted New York's future odds. The Jets went from +2500 to win the Super Bowl on March 1st to +1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook post-trade request.

The most surprising to me about this trade is how little the Packers got for Rodgers. He is a future Hall of Famer just one season removed from back-to-back NFL MVPs. Yet the Packers only got a two 2nd-round picks and a 1st-round pick swap.

Green Bay's paltry return suggests how possibly toxic Rodgers is as an asset. Rodgers seemingly got a pass for the Packers poor 2022, which is confusing. Green Bay forked over a huge contract to Rodgers, what's his issue?

I'm not buying any Jets stock in the NFL futures markets. "Rodgers to the New York Jets" is more like "Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos" than "Peyton Manning to the Broncos". I.e. it could be a disaster.

New York Jets Future Odds Post-Aaron Rodgers trade (DraftKings Sportsbook)

NYJ doesn't exactly have a "win-now" roster. Granted, the Jets were in playoff contention in 2022 with a 7-4 record before losing six straight to end their season.

The Jets also have the NFL 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, WR Garrett Wilson, and 2nd-year RB Breece Hall who averaged 5.8 yards per rush before suffering a season-ending injury.

But, Green Bay had a great offensive line and the opposite is true in New York. Rodgers needs a good offensive line now that he's closing in on 40 years old and the Jets suffered cluster-injuries to their offensive line last season.

Then-Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is sacked by Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Also, people are assuming the Jets have a good defense based on last season. However, defense isn't predictive year over year, NYJ has two elite offenses in their division and the AFC is stacked with superstar QBs.

Rodgers went from the best QB in his division to maybe the 3rd-best QB in the AFC East. Bills QB Josh Allen has the 3rd-best odds to win the 2023 NFL MVP (+750) and Rodgers has the same odds as Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (+1600).

My gambling advice for the 2023 New York Jets is to stay patient. The AFC is loaded and there could be a chunkier odds for the Jets halfway through the season or even entering the playoffs.