A Trio Of Best Bets For NBA Thursday
There is a 9-game slate Thursday in the NBA. After taking Wednesday off from writing (I published two NBA bets via Twitter), I'm back to win some money betting basketball. Or at least that's the plan.
Given load management and all the random last-minute injury news, I'll hold off betting the games below until the final starting 5s are announced. Regardless, I try to beat the closing odds and need to produce content so I'm locking in these ...
NBA Thursday Best Bets
Portland Trail Blazers (+12) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
This is mostly a gut-play because the Trail Blazers have been playing well recently. They've covered three consecutive games. Portland should've beaten the Milwaukee Bucks in a 108-102 loss Sunday and they upset the Indiana Pacers 114-110 as +11.5 'dogs the next night.
The Cavaliers pounded the Trail Blazers 109-95 in Portland earlier this month, easily covering as -10 favorites. But, the Blazers were missing PG Malcolm Brogdon who leads their starting 5 in on/off net rating at +14.9, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Also, Cleveland is still dining off of last season's performance and hasn't been that good this season. For instance, the Cavs are 20th in net rating after ending last season second. They are 3-7-1 against the spread (ATS) as favorites this season.
Portland Trail Blazers PG Malcolm Brogdon and PF Jerami Grant celebrate vs. the Raptors at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Most of Cleveland's offense through guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland and Portland has a strong perimeter defense with Brogdon and SG Shaedon Sharpe. The Blazers are sixth in defensive 3-point shooting and 4th in opponent's 3-point attempts.
Finally, I'm anti-Donovan Mitchell but Portland PF Jerami Grant is my favorite player in this game. Grant is a versatile wing that can defend ball handlers and lighter bigs. He can create his own look and is shooting 42.6% from behind the arc.
My prediction: Cavaliers 111, Trail Blazers 106
Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
The Bucks are rolling right now and the Bulls are trending toward being trade-deadline sellers. Over the past two weeks, Milwaukee is 6-1 straight up (SU) with the 3rd-best non-garbage time net rating, per CTG. Whereas Chicago is 1-6 SU and 29th in non-garbage time net rating.
Furthermore, the Bucks get better looks offensively and do a better job contesting shots on defense. According to CTG, they are 5th in shot selection and 4th in defensive shot selection. While the Bulls are 20th in shot selection and 29th defensively.
Milwaukee beat Chicago 118-109 at home in their 1st meeting this season but the Bulls covered as +9.5 underdogs. However, the Bucks jumped out to a 17-point lead after the 1st quarter and coasted the rest of the way.
Bucks PG Damian Lillard drives past Chicago Bulls wings DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Chicago may be without its two leading scorers (SG Zach LaVine and SF DeMar DeRozan) and their best on-ball defender, G Alex Caruso. The Bulls will need to score Thursday because I don't see how they can stop the Bucks.
Lastly, Milwaukee has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over Chicago in getting to the foul line. The Bucks average 6.1 more free throw attempts per game than their opponents and the Bulls average 2.6 fewer free throw attempts per game.
My prediction: Bucks 120, Bulls 105
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-6), 8 p.m. ET tip-off
There is a tax for betting the Lakers. They are only getting +5.5 but are the far worse team. OKC is +7.3 in Basketball Reference's "Simple Rating System" (SRS) and LAL is -0.9. SRS blends scoring margin with strength of schedule.
Moreover, the Thunder have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Lakers in ball security. Per CTG, Oklahoma City has a top-10 turnover rate (TOV%) on both ends of the floor and LAL ranks 20th or worse in offensive and defensive TOV%.
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander grabs a rebound against the Lakers at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
The Thunder plays the 2nd-highest rate of half-court offense and rank 2nd in half-court offensive efficiency, per CTG. The Lakers get out in transition at the 2nd-highest rate in the NBA. But, OKC has the 2nd-best fastbreak defensive rating.
Since the Thunder will most likely win the turnover battle, they'll dictate the pace. Plus, Oklahoma City leads the NBA in 3-point shooting and ranks 5th in defensive 3-point shooting. The Lakers are 28th in 3-point shooting and 18th defensively.